Adecco Labour Market Outlook

The Spring Edition

March 2023

Adecco

OXFORD ECONOMICS

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We continue to see strong hiring demand from our clients across all industries and regions. Employers are posting significant numbers of live vacancies as they search for fresh talent to bring development plans to life. Even amid rising inflation rates and growing economic pressures, the appetite for new staff signals continued resilience for the UK jobs market – at least for now.

Spring Edition

As we have entered a new year, many of the challenges from 2022 prevail. The cost of living crisis continues to be a headline concern for most employers and employees. However, we expect to see light at the end of the tunnel soon.

Inflation is set to fall to around 4% by the end of 2023 and wage growth should soon stabilise. Whilst there is still a high degree of economic uncertainty, the labour market remains tight, with more than 1.13 million job postings over the last three months. Finding and securing the right talent remains key for business leaders, even with the predicted economic downturn in 2023.

This latest edition of the Labour Market Outlook combines regional and sectoral economic analysis for 2023 and beyond from Oxford Economics, salary data from salary.com, and insight from Adecco on labour market and hiring trends.

We hope this analysis will support your talent attraction and retention strategy for 2023, in what is most likely going to be another turbulent year for the UK.

Introduction	03
UK Labour Market Overview	05
Future of Work The Impact of Megatrends	09
Sector Performance & Outlook	11
Regional Outlook
North East	13
North West	15
Yorkshire and the Humber	17
East Midlands	19
West Midlands	21 23
East of England	25
Greater London	27
South East	29
South West	31
Wales	33
Scotland	35
Northern Ireland	37
Salary Analysis
City of London	39
Birmingham	41
Manchester	43
	45
Leeds	47
North East	49
North West	51
Yorkshire and the Humber East Midlands	53
	55
West Midlands	57
East of England Greater London	59
South East	61
South West	63
	65
Wales	67
Scotland	69
Northern Ireland	71
In Conclusion	73

Thanks to a rebound in recruitment, redundancy rates are relatively low and two million more people are now in employment compared to two years ago.

Introduction

Adecco

Despite being a year defined by uncertainty, 2022 saw the UK employment market hold steady and remain tight. Demand outstripped labour supply across many sectors. Q4 job vacancies reached a comparatively high 1.16 million. And unemployment dropped to 3.7%, dipping below pre-pandemic levels.

Thanks to a rebound in recruitment, redundancy rates are relatively low and two million more people are now in employment compared to two years ago. This points to a positive labour market with a vacancy-to-unemployment ratio of 1:1 – the lowest ever seen. Looking ahead, unemployment is expected to average out at 4.2% in 2023, only slightly higher than at the beginning of 2020.

We continue to see strong hiring demand from our clients across all industries and regions. Employers are posting significant numbers of live vacancies as they search for fresh talent to bring development plans to life Even amid rising inflation rates and growing economic pressures, the appetite for new staff signals continued resilience for the UK jobs market – at least for now.

The latest employment data spotlight several red flags for recruiters. With cautious consumer spending and a shallow recession forecast for 2023, the economy is set to contract – along with the number of available candidates.

Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, companies have faced the hurdles of a

shrinking UK workforce. Estimates reveal the labour supply is now more than a million people short of its pre-pandemic trajectory. This ‘participation puzzle’ – with potential employees actively removing themselves from the jobs market – explains the elevated salary expectations and restricted candidate pools of recent years.

Feedback shows the majority of inactive workers are early retirees over 50. To tempt this talent back into employment – and hold onto existing staff – companies must make work mean more. This involves a commitment to a people-first culture, including rewarding opportunities with plenty of advancement potential, fair pay, and flexible working arrangements.

Created in partnership with Oxford Economics, this report shares an overview of hiring activity across the UK and a summary of emerging employment trends. Undoubtedly, 2023 will present barriers to business growth – but expansion and recovery aren’t out of reach. With expert recruitment support and creative routes to engage dormant workers, we can tap into alternative talent sources and keep the UK’s labour market moving forward.

Niki Turner-Harding Senior Vice President, Adecco UK & Ireland

OXFORD ECONOMICS

After a turbulent second half of 2022, the UK economy is taking little momentum into 2023, and a period of recession this year now seems almost inevitable. Yet, on the whole, 2022 was a strong year for the UK labour market, with many jobs created, and unemployment at the end of the year lower than it was before the pandemic. Private sector employees also benefitted from rapid wage growth, which alleviated some of the pain from the cost of living crisis — although for most people, the gains in income were not nearly high enough to offset the corrosive effects of record high inflation.

However, a decline in job vacancies and a rise in redundancies at the end of the year suggest that the weakening economy is starting to impact the labour market. These indicators are likely to worsen, and unemployment will probably rise through much of 2023 as a result. And there is widespread recognition that the UK workforce has shrunk significantly since the onset of the pandemic, which could signal longer-term difficulties for employers and policymakers once the immediate impact of the recession has receded.

In this report, we explore these factors further and set out what is likely to happen to the UK economy and labour market in 2023, and what the longer-term prospects might be. We look at the overall picture, at differences between sectors, and also at the outlook for the 12 nations and regions of the UK.

Labour market indicators, UK

UK Labour Market Overview

The economy faces many challenges in 2023 after last year’s slowdown

2022 was another unusual year for the UK economy. When looking at the picture for the year as a whole, indicators show that the UK economy grew, and the labour market was resilient. GDP increased by 4.1% for the calendar year – a slower rate than in 2021, when activity surged as the economy re-opened after lockdowns, but stronger than in many other major economies, and the EU average. In the labour market, there were some 851,000 more jobs in 2022 compared to 2021: much more than expected at the start of the year. Unemployment also ended the year lower than before the pandemic.

Alongside these headline figures, there were encouraging signs of a gradual return of office staff to their places of work, particularly at the start of the year, bringing with them an increase in footfall and spending. This in turn helped restore employment in pandemic-hit sectors such as hospitality, leisure, and retail—sectors which also benefitted from leisure patterns and spending habits returning to something more like normal.

But the reality is more nuanced than it appears at first glance, and the annual data mask the fact that there was little growth in the second half of the year as businesses and consumers grappled with numerous political and economic pressures. Indeed, GDP fell in Q3 2022, which left output in that quarter 0.8% below its pre-pandemic level. And with falling retail sales, and economic disruption caused by widespread industrial action in the lead up to year-end, GDP was flat in Q4.

The latest labour market data provides further evidence of a weakening economy. The number of job vacancies in Q4 2022 fell further from the highs recorded in the summer, redundancies rose to the highest level in over a year, and unemployment edged up in most parts of the UK.

Yet despite all these indications of slowing demand, recruitment difficulties have been an ongoing challenge for employers. The UK labour market remains tight by historical standards, as job vacancies remain high at 1.13 million in the three months to January 2023, whilst the redundancy rate is still relatively low. Recruitment challenges are tending to push up pay expectations, as of course is the rise in inflation. Annual growth in average total weekly wages stood at 6.7% in the three months to December, and private sector pay grew by 7.3%, the fastest growth rate seen outside of the pandemic period. Growth in take-home pay may have helped alleviate some of the cost of living pressures for households but real earnings have fallen sharply once adjusted for inflation.

The workforce has shrunk as older people have left the workforce and may never return

A key reason for the labour market tightness is that the UK workforce has shrunk since the start of the pandemic. We estimate that the labour supply is now over a million people lower than compared with where it would have been, had pre-pandemic trends continued. A major cause of this is the rise in economic inactivity as an increasing number of workers, often aged above 50, have left the workforce. Statistics show that inactivity due to long-term sickness has grown the fastest, however, the ONS notes that most of the concerned individuals had already left the workforce before becoming ill.

Indeed, evidence suggests that many of the new inactive individuals since the beginning of the pandemic were workers who retired early. ONS survey data show that retiring was given as the main reason for leaving paid work by those aged 50-64, followed by seeking a change of lifestyle; the impact of the pandemic; and redundancy. The survey also shows that attitudes towards returning to work differ by age. The majority of newly retired individuals do not wish to re-join the workforce, while those aged 50-54 are more likely to consider doing so than people aged 60-64. Income and wealth are important factors. For example, those considering returning to work were less likely to be able to afford an unexpected but necessary expense or to own their own property than those not considering returning to work. And although rising living costs may prompt some retirees to return to the workforce in 2023, the ONS survey shows that for older people who say that they would consider returning, the most important consideration is likely to be the extent of flexibility offered to them. That ranks ahead of pay, which was only the second most important factor.

The UK labour market remains tight by historical standards, as job vacancies remain high at 1.13 million in the three months to January 2023, whilst the redundancy rate is still relatively low.

Expected employment deficit by sector, 2022-23

Labour supply has fallen since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic and has not recovered since. A large part of the story can be attributed to growing inactivity levels. Many workers, typically above 50, left the workforce, either to retire or due to long-term sickness and have not returned.

Payroll employees, UK

The number of payroll employees grew continuously throughout 2022 and in January 2023 exceeded 30 million - the highest figure on record. This was 2.6% higher than in January 2022 - equivalent to an increase of 768,000 employees.

Much of the annual growth in total employment occurred at the start of the year and then flattened off. Meanwhile, unemployment continued to fall across most of the year, although at a slower rate than in 2021 and picked up slightly at the end of 2022. And despite a fall in inactivity at the end of the year, the number of inactive individuals reached a new record high in the summer, adding further pressure to an already tight labour market.

Measure of labout market tightness, UK

The vacancy ratio (the number of unemployed individuals for one vacancy) reached a long-time low in 2022. There is roughly the same number of unemployed individuals than there are vacancies, which makes it difficult for businesses to recruit. Redundancy rates have also been historically low but picked up sharply at the end of 2022.

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26

Business services will be the largest recruiter between 2023 and 2026. This includes professional and scientific activities, as well as administrative and support services. Public services are also expected to see strong growth, particularly driven by increasing demand in human health and social care. Information and communication activities are forecast to record the fastest rate of growth, but the relatively small size of the sector means that this will not translate in as many jobs as some other sectors.

The majority of newly retired individuals do not wish to re-join the workforce, while those aged 50-54 are more likely to consider doing so than people aged 60-64.

Expected net jobs created by region, 2023-26

Employment is expected to pick up in every region as soon as 2024, but most regions will have to wait until the following year for job gains to offset 2023 losses. We anticipate close to 860,000 new jobs will be created by 2026 across the UK. Over half of the jobs will be concentrated in just three regions: London, the South East and the South West.

Although our forecasted GDP fall of 0.7% represents a relatively shallow recession by historical standards, the fall in economic activity will inevitably mean that conditions in the UK labour market this year will continue to be challenging.

2023 is expected to see a shallow recession led by consumers and some job losses are inevitable

We forecast the UK economy to contract for much of 2023. The recession will be mainly a result of a contraction in consumer spending, as households continue to face high inflation and a reduction in government support to help them pay their energy bills. Indeed, with the Bank of England having already increased interest rates to 4%, some homeowners face a huge rise in their monthly outgoings. We believe inflation has peaked, but it will take time to drop back.

And although our forecasted GDP fall of 0.7% represents a relatively shallow recession by historical standards, the fall in economic activity will inevitably mean that conditions in the UK labour market this year will continue to be challenging. We expect most sectors to experience job losses in 2023. The impact of falling consumer spending will be seen directly in some of the greatest job losses occurring across the retail, hospitality, and leisure sectors, which includes accommodation and food services, as well as arts and entertainment activities. The retail sector is forecast to record the largest losses in absolute terms, with 106,800 fewer jobs in 2023 than 2022, followed by accommodation and food (54,800).

And lower spending also negatively impacts the demand for consumer goods, adding to the other headwinds faced by manufacturers, including weak global demand and high energy prices. We expect the manufacturing sector to shed some 30,000 jobs in the year. Overall, we forecast employment will fall by 1% in 2023, accounting for the loss of almost 350,000 jobs.

The labour market will remain tight in 2023 despite a modest rise in unemployment

As a result, unemployment is also set to rise slightly and will average 4.2% this year. That is nevertheless lower than seen in 2020 and 2021, at the peak of the pandemic. That modest rise in unemployment is likely to mean that recruitment difficulties will continue in many sectors and in particular roles. Alongside agriculture, the health sector is expected to expand in employment terms this year. However, in December 2022, it was already reporting the highest level of vacancies (206,000) of any sector. And an ONS survey in December showed that almost a third of businesses in the accommodation and food sector were experiencing recruitment difficulties. These and other ongoing mismatches in the supply of, and demand for, workers across the economy, alongside potentially large public sector pay settlements, will likely feed into continued wage rises this year, though they will remain below inflation. We expect average weekly earnings to rise by 5% this year.

In 2024 and beyond, knowledge-based services will be among the largest recruiters

We expect that by the end of 2023, economic activity will return to growth and whilst we do not expect a particularly strong bounce-back, this will filter through to the labour market. As a result, the jobs lost in 2023 should, in aggregate, be almost entirely re-gained in 2024. Over the longer term, knowledge-based services, including professional and information and communication services, will be among the largest recruiters and the fastest growing sectors. Equally, retail, human health, and the hospitality sectors are expected to have significant recruitment needs.

Underlying changes to the structure of the UK labour market

Our expectation for 2023 and well beyond, is that business investment in the UK will remain low compared to other major international economies. As a result, we expect productivity growth to remain subdued. The recovery and growth of the UK’s labour force will therefore be key to future economic growth and prosperity. We expect that in 2024, the workforce will start to grow again, buoyed by international migration and some improvements to economic activity rates. However, for the reasons discussed above, it is likely that many of the older workers who left the workforce will never return. More can perhaps be done to encourage younger retired workers back to work, and we expect some reversal of the recent trends, but fully turning the rising tide of inactivity seems unlikely. And over the longer term, the UK population is ageing. In many parts of the UK, the working age population is set to decline. That will be true, even with an assumed modest boost from overseas migrants. This means that improving the efficiency of labour market matching will be important to the growth potential of the UK economy.

We expect that by the end of 2023, economic activity will return to growth and whilst we do not expect a particularly strong bounce-back, this will filter through to the labour market.

Future of Work

The Impact of Megatrends

Building on the megatrends defined by Adecco in 2022, we are seeing the immediate impact of these on the UK labour market as we enter 2023. The increased uncertainty and looming recession will accelerate and reinforce the impact of these trends on society and the economy.

Economic and political volatility

The fast-changing and at times hard-to-predict political and economic landscape is contributing to the increasing uncertainty for both employers and workers.

The BCC Quarterly Economic1 Survey Q4 2022 reveals that business confidence, conditions and sales have stabilised at low levels, while inflation is the top external factor of concern. Uncertainty around the economic outlook is hindering hiring activity.

Many companies are hesitant to commit2 to new permanent appointments and opt for temporary staff instead.

The increased insecurity makes many workers unwilling to move jobs, adding to hiring challenges in the market.

A third of workers are concerned3 about job security in the face of the expected recession. The uncertainty is also negatively impacting employees mental health, in particular those experiencing financial difficulties as a result of the cost of living crisis. It is of vital importance for employers to support employees’ mental wellbeing and work-life balance. Such assistance from employers also makes economic sense. People with good mental health4 are less absent from work due to sickness, which translates into lower productivity losses.

Talent scarcity

Despite a wider slowdown amid economic uncertainty and high inflation, the labour market remains tight. The number of vacancies is still high by historical standards and employers continue to experience challenges in retaining and attracting workers. High inactivity levels due to long-term sickness, older workers retiring early, end of free movement between the UK and the EU, a smaller workforce overall, and insufficient investment in skills are all contributing to talent scarcity.

Economic experts expect the UK workforce to remain smaller, therefore emphasising the challenge of the ageing population and workforce. Reaching out to a more diverse talent pool and rebuilding a skilled UK workforce are key in addressing staff and skills shortages.

The issue of economic inactivity among people over 50 is particularly worrying, as it translates to a significant loss of experience and talent. A recent survey revealed that just 42% of employers5 were open ‘to a large extent’ to hiring people aged 50-64. Ageism is a significant deterring factor, with 55% of older workers having experienced ageism in the recruitment process.

Employers play a significant role in 6 retaining and attracting older workers. Offering flexibility is a good starting7 point, as 62% of workers over 50 say they need greater flexible working.

Young people are also experiencing obstacles in access to employment, as employers are not consistently hiring from these age groups. Over the past year, 40% of employers did not hire 8 anyone aged 18-21 and 21% from the 22-25 age group.

These examples show that a change in perception and attitude is needed to increase the shrinking UK talent pool. Employers and recruiters need to be open to talent from all backgrounds and age groups. They should consider a range of solutions to attract and retain different demographics. Investment in skills also needs to be a fundamental part of long-term growth strategy.

Workforce of the future

The pandemic has changed workers’ preferences and expectations regarding flexibility and home working. Workers want jobs where they feel less burned out and have a better work/life balance. For employers, flexible working is an important way to attract and retain a more diverse range of employees. Our research confirms that flexibility is a key retention lever, with 60% of desk-based workers globally considering or having moved jobs already as a direct result of having more flexibility. This has significantly increased compared to 2021 (19 percentage points).

Employers and recruiters need to be open to talent from all backgrounds and age groups.
They should consider a range of solutions to attract and retain different demographics.
Investment in skills also needs to be a fundamental part of long-term growth strategy.

In the UK, 29% of workers chose their current job because of flexibility.

Flexible working has become even more important amid the cost of living crisis. Challenges such as childcare costs, commuting expenses, difficulty in coping with ill-health while working full time, and caring responsibilities are driving many people away from the labour market.

Government plans to make flexible working the default confirms the importance of this practice has been widely recognised and is here to stay. New legislation would also remove unnecessary barriers that prevent people pursuing a second job.

The cost of living crisis is the key motivating factor behind the increase in second jobs. According to a survey conducted in October9 by Censuswide, one in 10 UK employees are considering taking a second job this year to make ends meet. The need for additional income will contribute to further expansion of the gig economy in the UK.

Digital transformation

The recent news of layoffs by global giants has clearly triggered tech workers’ uncertainty around job security. More than half (53%) of UK tech workers are pre-emptively applying for new jobs in case of potential redundancies. But these concerns do not find confirmation in

10 reality, as only 1.2% of ‘information and communication’ companies are planning redundancies over the next three months, according to the latest ONS survey. While demand for IT specialists slowed in the second half of 2022, it remains firmly 11 above pre-pandemic levels; the number of job postings has doubled compared to 2020 hiring activity.

Digital transformation is high on boardroom agendas in 2023. Despite economic challenges, 60% of executives of large 12 companies plan to increase spending on digital transformation.

However, UK businesses are struggling to keep up with the pace of the global digital change because of skills shortages. Almost 13 70% of digital leaders in the UK say they are held back by a talent shortage.

High demand for tech staff means businesses cannot rely solely on graduates. They must instead urgently reskill and upskill their own14 workforce to prevent the UK sleepwalking into a crisis.

However, almost six in 10 workers (58%)15 say they have never received digital skills upskilling from their employer. This needs to change, as the lack of digital skills is holding back digital transformation and harming the economy.

Employers need to increase focus on workplace digital skills training, while the government should improve skills training programmes to help address the UK’s digital skills crisis. Without significant improvement in tech talent availability, the successful delivery of the government’s ambitious digital transformation strategy will also be at risk.

Purpose-led

In recent years, responsible business has been gradually climbing up employers’ agendas. The pandemic and climate crisis have increased public expectations from politicians and business leaders. Growing regulatory and investor focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues mean employers will need to increasingly focus on values and purpose.

Recent EY research confirms that 16

purpose is an important consideration for a significant proportion of the UK workforce, particularly among younger employees. Nearly half (44%) of workers think that working for an organisation that significantly contributes to society is more important now than before the pandemic. As many as 37% of survey respondents would take a 20% cut in salary to work for an organisation with more positive impact on society and the environment.

According to new research by KPMG, 82% of office workers want to be able to link values and purpose with the organisation they work for. 30% of workers have checked the company’s ESG credentials when looking for a job. Environmental impact and living wage policy were the key factors that workers

considered. Almost half of respondents17 want their employer to demonstrate ESG commitments, and 20% would turn down a job if they thought those commitments were poor.

With the growing pressure on businesses from the public and investors regarding addressing inequality, positively contributing to society and tackling climate crisis, the importance of working for a purpose-led organisation is set to increase in the coming years.

Conclusion

These trends will continue to shape the world of work, as UK employers and workers manoeuvre through evolving labour market challenges. Adecco will deep dive into the megatrends to provide better understanding and support to key labour market stakeholders.

Sources:

BCC Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2022, January 2023
Report on Jobs, REC, February 2023
Totaljobs research, January 2023

Good mental health linked to a reduction in productivity losses to the economy, LSE, Oct 2022

Over-50s at work, BBC, January 2023
How can employers attract and retain older workers? workingwise.co.uk, Dec 2022
How can employers attract and retain older workers? workingwise.co.uk, Dec 2022

Bridging the Gap: Making young people a vital part of every workforce, IES and the Health Foundation, Jan 2023

Censuswide survey, October 2022
Half of tech workers preparing for layoffs, HRNews, January 2023
Lightcast
Businesses Plan to Increase Investment in Digital Transformation, BCG, December 2022
Almost 70% of businesses held back by talent shortage, ComputerWeekly.com, November 2022
How to solve the data science skills shortage, SAS, November 2022
The nature of the UK’s digital skills gap, AND Digital, October 2022
EY Lane4 survey, EY, October 2022
Climate quitting, KPMG, January 2023

Sector Performance & Outlook

Employment grew almost across the board in 2022, with some sectors still reaping the benefits of post-pandemic re-openings, while others had already exceeded their 2019 employment levels. But the economic climate deteriorated in the second half of the year and a decline in vacancies and rise in redundancies suggested weakening labour market activity at the end of 2022. Unemployment also ticked up at the end of the year. The fall in economic activity this year is expected to lead to employment declining in almost every sector.

Most private sector services grew in 2022, but two stand out. Professional, scientific, and technical activities was the largest recruiter among private sector services, with 121,000 net new jobs created last year, followed by information and communication, which grew at the faster rate of the two. Although both sectors are expected to contract in 2023, they will be among the most resilient, with relatively few job losses. These two sectors rely on a highly skilled workforce, and we forecast them to grow at some of the fastest rates over the period 2023-26.

In contrast, employment in administrative and support services will contract more significantly in 2023, with about 42,000 fewer jobs compared to last year. The sector includes activities such as cleaning services, office support, and call centre activities which – due to their support function – are more likely to experience a fall in demand during periods of economic decline. But the equivalent of about four in five jobs lost in 2023 will be recovered as soon as 2024, and the sector is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the following years as demand recovers.

The outlook for finance and insurance and real estate activities is less optimistic. Employment in finance and insurance has been on the decline over the past decade, largely a result of automation and the relocation of back office activities offshore. Employment in the sector fell in 2022 and is expected to continue to do so in 2023, with a small rise in jobs in following years. Growth in real estate activities was weak in 2022, and after a small decline in 2023, employment growth will also lag the average across all sectors from 2024 onwards.

After recording one of the fastest growth rates in 2022, employment in the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector is set to decline this year. The squeeze on household budgets will stall the recovery the sector has enjoyed since it was released from pandemic-induced restrictions. While employment growth will rebound in 2024 onwards, employment will only recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2026.

Accommodation and food services was the fastest growing sector in 2022, as well as the largest recruiter. About 172,000 net new jobs are estimated to have been created last year, representing about a fifth of new jobs in the country. The sector was one of the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the rapid employment growth observed in 2022 was largely the result of the industry catching up as consumption progressively returned to normal. As a result of its high dependence on consumer spending, we expect the accommodation and food services sector to record the largest fall in employment in 2023. In January 2023, 60% of businesses in the sector surveyed by the ONS reported economic uncertainty to be a challenge impacting their turnover, compared to 30% of all businesses. But as the recession is expected to be short-lived, accommodation and food services should bounce back in 2024, and we expect employment to grow above the average rate in the longer term.

A similar story is expected for wholesale and retail activities, as the sector is also highly dependent on household consumption and purchasing power. Indeed, the price of c onsumer goods and services, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose significantly throughout 2022, with the October rate the highest seen in 41 years. Meanwhile, retail sales volumes have continued to fall. The outlook for wholesale and retail is therefore rather bleak in 2023, with the sector contributing to close to a third of all job losses in the year. But there will be a rebound in 2024, and the sector will record above-average employment growth over the 2023-2026 period.

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing will be one of the only two sectors to experience employment growth in 2023, although this will be limited to less than 1%. Over the longer term, employment levels in the sector will be relatively flat with little anticipated growth.

The manufacturing sector faced a number of challenges in 2022. The fall in the pound’s exchange rate made imports of raw materials and components more costly, but it did not boost exports in return, which are reported to have declined. Meanwhile, high inflation and high energy costs have reduced margins and held back investment plans. And while employment grew in 2022, with about 83,000 more jobs than in 2021, businesses continue to report employment shortages, with 78,000 vacancies reported at the end of the year. Specifically, there is strong demand for high-skilled workers as the trend toward advanced manufacturing continues. However, as demand for goods will slow in 2023, likely also will the demand for labour. Employment is expected to contract in 2023, with the loss of around 35,000 jobs. In following years, as the economy recovers and demand returns, we continue to expect employment in manufacturing to decline. This is because long-term trends of automation and efficiency are likely to continue, meaning that growth in output in the sector will be accompanied by job losses from the sector. But within that, the demand for particular roles, especially higher-skilled activities, will likely continue.

Falling disposable income and rising interest rates will also strongly impact the construction sector, increasing the cost of financing projects and purchases. This will particularly affect residential building work this year. As a result, we expect construction employment to fall by 1.3% in 2023. Government infrastructure investment will bolster activity over the medium term, with over £600 billion allocated over the next five years, with an emphasis on energy projects including nuclear new build. After muted growth in 2024, we expect jobs growth in the sector to pick up in 2025.

Among public sector activities, education has grown at the fastest pace. Employment grew 3.5% in 2022, above the all-sector average of 2.4%. However, we expect employment to decline in 2023, although marginally, and growth should pick up from 2024. The additional £4.6 billion of funding promised at the Autumn Statement for the core school budget in 2023-24 and 2024-25 should bring the funding per pupil back to 2010 levels, but it is not clear yet how the money will be spent and if more jobs will be created.

Meanwhile, we expect employment in public administration and defence to slowly decline in 2023, as well as in the following years to 2026. Government spending in general public services has declined since 2010-11, and despite a surge in 2021-22, future spending levels are uncertain. But the Chancellor’s objective to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio suggests that additional investment in public administration will be limited.

Human health and social care has grown modestly in 2022, yet demand for workers has been high. The sector continues to record the largest number of vacancies of all sectors, in excess of 200,000 at the end of 2022. Skills shortages and pay pressure, highlighted by the recent NHS strikes, are likely to hinder recruitment. At the same time, demand for health and social care will continue to increase, with demand for health services still high following the pandemic. In 2023, human health and social care is expected to be one of the only two sectors to grow in employment terms, albeit very modestly. And employment demand in the sector will be significant in following years.

The following pages include a regional outlook for each of the 12 regions and nations of the UK. We have provided analysis on expected sector performance in each region, in addition to the impact of macroeconomic forces on labour market trends and employment.

According to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, British business activity rebounded in February after six months of declining output, pointing to resilience in the UK economy. The survey reported the majority of businesses have seen an expansion in activity for the first time since July 2022.

However, we anticipate unemployment rates will increase across all regions, averaging 0.5% increase across 2023. This is a very modest increase compared with previous reces-sions. And for the East Midlands and North East, unemployment in 2023 is set to be below what it was before the pandemic, and therefore low by historic standards.

Across the North East, total employment rose by 3.6% in 2022, equivalent to 42,800 jobs. Employment growth between 2023 and 2027 is expected to average 0.3% per year. Combined, the professional, scientific & technical and health & social work sectors will support around 11,000 additional jobs by 2027. These gains may be in part offset by a reduction in manufacturing and public administration over this period.

In the North West, employment grew by 1% in 2022, with the creation of 37,800 new jobs. This was accompanied by a fall in unemployment from 4.6% in 2021 to 4.1% last year. Most sectors recorded job creation in 2022, for some including hospitality, that largely reflected the continued journey to recovery. Public services reported the largest increase in net new jobs, after hospitality,

while information and communication and business services saw more modest increases. As post-pandemic recovery continues, we expect employment growth of 0.4% per year between 2023 and 2027. The greatest contributors to economic growth are expected to be in the real estate and administrative support sectors.

Yorkshire and the Humber saw a strong rise in employment of 2.9% in 2022, alongside a steady reduction in unemployment from 4.4% to 4.1%. The largest recruiters in 2022 were public services – particularly human health and education – hospitality, and manufacturing. Despite a forecasted moderate contraction in Employment in 2023, Yorkshire and the Humber is expected to be one of the more resilient regions this year. High-skilled services – including information and communication and financial services – will be more resilient and will experience only minor losses.

According to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, British business activity rebounded in February after six months of declining output, pointing to resilience in the UK economy.

Employment growth in the East Midlands gained momentum in 2022, slightly outpacing its neighbouring region, the West Midlands. This performance was enough to see employment overtake pre-pandemic levels. However, the regional labour market faces other challenges. ONS data show a significant rise in the number of working age people not seeking work in the region. Whilst the drivers of inactivity are complex, in the East Midlands there is evidence that increases in people retiring and studying were significant factors, ahead of illness. Over the period 2023 to 2026, the bulk of jobs created in the East Midlands will be in business services. At a detailed level, we expect professional services (including marketing, legal, and consultancy) and administrative and support services to particularly drive growth.

In 2022, employment growth in the West Midlands picked up, but the rate of increase was slower than in most other regions, and employment only just topped pre-pandemic levels. The West Midlands continues to have among the highest rates of unemployment in the UK at 4.8%. Alongside this, the labour force survey data also showed an increase in the number of people not seeking work and becoming inactive. As the fastest growing sector in 2022, hospitality also contributed the most to job creation, accounting for half of total net new jobs in the West Midlands. Over the 2023-26 period, job creation will be driven by business services, hospitality, and public services.

The East of England recorded a solid rate of employment growth in 2022, in line with the UK average. Business services contributed the most to job creation in 2022, in particular professional, scientific, and technical activities. But transportation and storage and information and communication grew at the fastest pace. The East of England remains in a favourable position compared to many other regions, benefitting from low unemployment and low rates of economic inactivity. Unemployment is expected to rise in 2023 but from a low base and the rate will remain below the UK. Employment growth is expected to pick up in 2024, but the level of employment will remain below the 2022 level until the following year.

The period of growth that the whole country experienced in the first half of the year was particularly strong in London. And contrary to most other regions, the labour market remained relatively resilient despite the economy decelerating in the second half of the year. Any fall in activity is likely to be relatively modest, mainly because the capital’s economy is dominated by the digital and business services sectors, which are expected to be among the most resilient parts of the economy in 2023. And London, alongside other regions, will also benefit from growth in public services. We forecast employment growth in 2024 to almost entirely offset the expected job losses this year, meaning the decline will be relatively short-lived, compared to previous recessions. Across the period 2023-26, employment in London will grow at the fastest pace across the UK.

Employment in the South East expanded in 2022, however at a slower pace than in any other region bar the North West. Despite the slower pace, employment grew in most sectors of the economy during the past year, with hospitality and business services the largest recruiters. Meanwhile, the latest Labour Force Survey data show a slight increase in unemployment and a decline in employment. The unemployment rate is expected to rise, but will remain below the national average. With the labour market remaining relatively tight in the region, earnings should rise faster than in most regions, behind only London. We anticipate the main drivers of employment activity to be information and communication, business services, and hospitality.

The South West was the third fastest growing region in terms of employment in 2022. The unemployment rate in the region – which is typically one of the lowest in the country – also declined slightly. The largest recruiters in 2022 were public services – in particular education – and the hospitality sector. The signs of an economic slowdown are less present in the South West than in some other parts of the country. While ONS payroll data suggest that employee growth began to decelerate in the summer, the latest Labour Force Survey data indicate that employment continued to grow towards the end of the year. The varied nature of the South West economy will help provide some protection from the decline in activity this year. We anticipate some job losses, but the region will record the smallest fall in employment in percentage terms of any region.

Wales experienced the fastest employment growth in the UK in 2022, largely the result of a labour market that struggled to recover in 2021, and was therefore catching up. Employment in Wales had been declining since 2019 – so, before the Covid-19 pandemic. But the number of new jobs created in 2022 was enough to offset the losses since 2019. Public services, and particularly education and health, were the largest recruiters during the year. Over the 2023-2026 period, business services will be the largest recruiter, with

jobs created in both professional services and in administrative and support services in equal measure. Wholesale and retail and hospitality are also expected to contribute significantly to job growth.

Scotland’s labour market showed mix results in 2022. Employment grew at a faster pace than in 2021 and recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, unemployment fell by one of the fastest rates in the country. Survey evidence from the Scottish Chamber of Commerce shows that labour shortages are among the greatest challenges facing firms, with recruitment difficulties on the rise throughout 2022. Unemployment in Scotland is at an his-torically low level and is lower than the UK rate. Coupled with this, Scotland has not seen the same rise in inactivity observed in most parts of the UK. Employment growth will be strongest in business service industries, as well as in hospitality and the public sector. Information and communication activities are also set to grow rapidly, although the sector will remain relatively small compared to other parts of the UK.

Employment grew by 2.7% in Northern Ireland in 2022, above the UK average. The accommodation and food sector had the fastest rate of growth, followed by education and professional services. However, Northern Ireland is forecast to be one of the weakest performing parts of the UK this year, partly reflecting its sectoral structure. As a result, employment is expected to decline by more than the UK average in 2023. While the labour market will pick up in 2024, growth will be slow, and employment will remain below the 2022 level until the following year. Over the longer term, we expect Northern Ireland to record one of the lowest rates of employment growth in the country.

Employment growth gained momentum in 2022

Following a muted performance in 2021, the North East caught up somewhat in 2022, recording the second-fastest employment growth in the UK. This trend is reflected in payroll data which show that the number of employees grew at a steady rate throughout the year.

Most sectors reported employment growth in 2022, with hospitality generating the greatest increase in jobs. Although these increases are largely the result of a sector that struggled to recover in 2021. The public and business services sectors also contributed to job creation, whereas financial services shed jobs across the region.

However, the number of job adverts fell throughout most of 2022, with steeper declines recorded towards the tail-end of the year. Indeed, the latest Labour Force Survey data for September to November 2022 show an increase in the region’s unemployment rate. The data also show the North East having the highest rate of unemployment of all UK regions. Given the broader national landscape, it is very likely that the regional labour market has started 2023 on a weak footing.

Job shedding across all sectors in 2023

Like all regions in the UK, the North East is expected to see employment fall in 2023.

Weakening consumer confidence, along with high, though declining, inflation will impact consumer-led activities the most. As a result, job losses will be concentrated in the retail and hospitality sectors. Business services — a sector that is typically fast growing and includes high-value added activities — is also expected to shed jobs in 2023 in the region, as are manufacturing and public services. And while no sector is immune to job losses, both information and communication and financial services may see relatively small job declines.

The region’s unemployment rate is expected to rise to an average of 5.2% across the year, remaining above the national average (4.2%) and will be among the highest regional rates.

Long-term outlook: weak demographic outlook but growth potential in some sectors

While employment growth will resume in 2024, the pace of growth will be among the slowest of all regions and half the national average rate. Despite the creation of new jobs, the gains will not offset those lost in 2023. Job creation will pick up from 2025 onwards, yet over the longer term, we expect the North East to be the slowest-growing region in employment terms.

The North East’s economy has become increasingly diverse, and we forecast business services to be the fastest-growing sector in employment terms over the 2023 to 2026 period. Within that sector, it is professional, scientific and technical services that will create the largest number of jobs. The region also has a concentration of low carbon activities, particularly in and around Tyneside and Teesside that could help drive growth as part of the transition to Net Zero. However, we forecast that public services will continue to be the biggest employer in the North East.

A weak demographic outlook has the potential to weigh on labour market performance. The North East is forecast to see the largest decline in the number of people of working age in the longer term, with year-on-year falls over the period to 2026. This could limit the region’s future economic growth potential compared to other regions, particularly those in the south of the country.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2021
Online job adverts, 2020-22

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

2022: employment grew but a long way to recovery

The North West has struggled to recover from the pandemic. Following further job losses in 2021, the region recorded the weakest employment growth in the UK in 2022. Monthly payroll data show that while the number of employees grew throughout 2022, the pace of growth, which eased in the middle of the year, was among the slowest of all regions. The number of online job adverts also declined, hinting at a slowdown in activity.

Meanwhile, the Labour Force Survey data for September to November 2022 show that while the unemployment rate fell slightly, it remains above the national average, and employment also contracted.

Though most sectors recorded job creation in 2022, for some including hospitality, that largely reflected the continued journey to recovery. Public services reported the largest increase in net new jobs, after hospitality, while information and communication and business services saw more modest increases. However, these gains were partially offset by job losses in the region’s retail sector, as inflationary pressures weighed on disposable income, and economic uncertainty increased.

Health will be the only sector to avoid job losses this year

Employment is set to contract in 2023, a trend mirrored across all regions. Not only will the North West experience the joint-fastest rate of decline, but losses will more than offset the gains made in 2022.

We anticipate that all sectors of the economy will shed jobs in 2023, with retail seeing the largest fall. The sector alone will account for more than one quarter of the region’s total employment losses. This will feed into reduced demand for sales and customer service occupations, which is expected to fall the most of any job category. The information and communication and financial services sectors will be relatively safeguarded, and the number of jobs lost will be comparatively small in these sectors. The only sector to see employment levels remain broadly stable in 2023 will be human health and social work, which will remain the largest employer in the North West.

Weakness in the job market will see the unemployment rate rise in 2023 to an average 4.6% for the year, matching the rate seen in 2021. Furthermore, average earnings will grow at one of the weakest rates of any region.

Long-term outlook: demographics likely to hold the region back

Employment will return to growth in 2024, yet the region will struggle to recover all jobs lost in the preceding year. Across the 2023-26 period, employment growth in the North West will be muted and lag the national average. Business services is forecast to see the largest absolute increase in jobs, supporting the increase in demand for managerial and professional occupations. These gains are likely to be focussed within the larger cities of Manchester and Liverpool.

The region’s demographic outlook is also challenging. While an ageing population will drive the rise in jobs in the human health and social work sector, growth in the region’s working age population will be slow and start to reverse in 2026. Overall, this has the potential to squeeze the productive capacity of the regional economy. We also expect steady declines in unemployment, but this will be slower than seen in many regions.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022

Online job adverts, 2020-22

Headline forecast

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Favourable growth in 2022, despite recent signs of slowdown

Total employment continued to grow in Yorkshire and the Humber in 2022, building on the momentum from 2021. The employment growth rate in 2022 was above the national average. But the economy deteriorated during the year, with inflation picking up and the political situation creating an uncertain environment for businesses, investors, and consumers.

Monthly employee payroll data for 2022 show that by springtime, the number of employees was still growing but the pace of growth was slowing. We also saw a decline in the number of online job adverts throughout the year, suggesting falling demand for workers from businesses. And by the end of the year (September to November 22), the Labour Force Survey suggested a slight decline in employment and an uptick in unemployment compared to the previous quarter (June to August 22).

The largest recruiters in 2022 were public services – particularly human health and education – hospitality, and manufacturing. Within the region’s manufacturing sector, highlights were to be found in the manufacture of food products, metals, and other manufacturing and repair – a sector which includes the manufacture of medical instruments and supplies.

A moderate contraction in 2023

We anticipate a decline in the number of jobs in Yorkshire and the Humber in 2023. Yet the rate of contraction should be slightly lower than the national average, placing Yorkshire and the Humber as one of the more resilient labour markets this year.

Although every sector is expected to decline in 2023, some will be more resilient than others. Wholesale and retail trade will record the largest number of losses, a result of the rising cost of living pressures restraining consumer spending. Employment in manufacturing will also decline significantly, as well as hospitality. High-skilled services – including information and communication and financial services – will be more resilient and will experience only minor losses.

Unemployment is expected to grow, albeit not as fast as in other parts of the country. However, at 4.7%, the unemployment rate will remain above the UK average (4.2%).

Long-term outlook: slower growth but business services expected to develop

We expect the economy to rebound as early as next year. Yet employment levels will remain below 2022 until the following year. In the longer term, Yorkshire and the Humber’s average growth rate should place the region in the middle of the pack, close to the UK average.

Many jobs will be created in business services, including professional and scientific activities, and administrative and support services. Wholesale and retail trade will also bounce back and contribute to job creation. Manufacturing employment is expected to decline steadily year on year, as the sector becomes less labour intensive and more automated.

We expect high demand for professional, technical, and managerial occupations, reflecting growth in high value industries. But the challenge for the region will be to ensure this demand can be matched. Indeed, R&D activities are potentially important to Yorkshire and the Humber, with clusters in biopharma and medical tech near Leeds, aerospace and motor vehicles in Sheffield, and renewable energy in the Humber. But the right labour pool will be needed for businesses to continue to invest and grow these activities in the region.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022

Headline forecast
Online job adverts, 2020-22

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Employment growth eased in second half of 2022

Employment growth in the East Midlands gained momentum in 2022, slightly outpacing its neighbouring region, the West Midlands. This performance was enough to see

employment overtake pre-pandemic levels. But like many regions, employment growth eased in the middle of 2022, as evidenced by monthly payroll data on employees. There is also other evidence signalling a slowdown in the regional economy. The number of online job adverts declined throughout most of 2022, with steeper

falls reported towards the end of the year. Moreover, latest Labour Force Survey data for September to November 2022 show a fall in employment and a rise in unemployment.

In the year to 2022, hospitality reported the largest absolute increase in jobs. Administrative and support services also created many jobs, restoring the sector to pre-pandemic employment levels. These gains were partially offset by some job losses in the financial services sector. And whilst the manufacturing sector created around 2,500 jobs, this represented just 6% of the total jobs created in the region last year.

The regional labour market faces other challenges. ONS data show a significant rise in the number of working age people not seeking work in the region. Whilst the drivers of inactivity are complex, in the East Midlands there is evidence that increases in people retiring and studying were significant factors, ahead of illness.

2023: decline will offset some of the gains made last year

Like other regions in the UK, we expect total employment to fall in the East Midlands in 2023. The rate of decline will be less pronounced than in its neighbouring region, the West Midlands, but still in line with the UK average. Overall, job losses in 2023 will offset around half of the gains made in 2022.

As inflation is set to remain high, even though falling, the pressure on households will continue, so that consumer-facing sectors will suffer the most. We expect retail to shed the greatest number of jobs in 2023, followed by hospitality and business services. These sectors combined will account for three-quarters of total job losses in the East Midlands. Human health and social work will be the only sector contributing to job growth.

Long-term outlook: muted employment growth prospects but opportunities exist

Employment growth is expected to slowly resume in 2024, gaining pace thereafter. However, between 2023 and 2026, employment growth in the East Midlands is forecast to trail the UK average. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to fall over the same period.

Over the period 2023 to 2026, the bulk of jobs created in the East Midlands will be in business services. At a detailed level, we expect professional services (including marketing, legal, and consultancy) and administrative and support services to particularly drive growth. This will be mirrored in occupations, with large increases in the demand for professional occupations and managers and senior officials. Further job creation will be supported by public services, retail, and hospitality.

Manufacturing remains a significant employer in the region. We expect output from the sector to expand in coming years, particularly in pharmaceutical products and computer components. But whilst there may be short-term employment gains in some of these sub-sectors, manufacturing as a whole is expected to shed many jobs in the future, mainly due to automation. As existing jobs disappear and new jobs are created that require different skills, the region faces a challenge to ensure employees have the requisite skills.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022

Online job adverts, 2020-22
Headline forecast

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Modest employment growth in 2022, with job losses in retail

In 2022, employment growth in the West Midlands picked up, but the rate of increase was slower than in most other regions, and employment only just topped pre-pandemic levels. And while payroll data show monthly increases in the number of employees, the pace of growth eased in the middle of the year. In addition, the number of online job adverts fell at a faster rate in the second half of 2022 compared to earlier months. The latest Labour Force Survey data for September to November

2022 show a fall in employment, and a rise in unemployment compared to the previous quarter (June to August 2022). As a result, the West Midlands continues to have among the highest rates of unemployment in the UK at 4.8%. Alongside this, the labour force survey data also showed an increase in the number of people not seeking work and becoming inactive.

As the fastest growing sector in 2022, hospitality also contributed the most to job creation, accounting for half of total net new jobs in the West Midlands. Despite this, employment in the sector has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. And while information and communication recorded the second-fastest rate of job growth, it is still among the smaller sectors in the region. However, the only sector reported to have lost jobs in 2022 was retail – most likely the result of growing inflation and reduced household spending.

Unemployment rate to remain the highest in the UK

In 2023, employment is expected to contract in the West Midlands falling by 1.2%. That compares with 1.0% in the UK as a whole.

While employment will fall across all broad sectors of the economy, retail will suffer the greatest job losses. Business services is also expected to shed jobs in 2023, with those losses particularly concentrated in administrative and support service activities. There will, however, be a few resilient sectors, including information and communication and financial services, which will see relatively few job losses this year. The region will have the highest unemployment rate in the UK, at 5.3%.

Long-term outlook: demographic outlook weighs on employment growth

Employment in the region will resume growth in 2024, but the pace will be relatively sluggish thereafter. Indeed, we expect employment growth to lag most regions and the UK in the long term. That means that the unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated compared to the low seen last year.

Over the 2023-26 period, job creation will be driven by business services, hospitality, and public services. But this will be partly offset by job shedding in manufacturing. Whilst we expect output to increase in key parts of the region’s manufacturing sector, most significantly in vehicle manufacturing, we do not expect this to be accompanied by employment growth in the sector.

Indeed, a feature of the West Midlands labour market will be the continued transition of jobs from traditional manufacturing to those in the service sector. Jobs lost in manufacturing roles are set to be offset by gains in service sectors providing the labour market can supply people with the types of skills required. The same is true for any new jobs created in advanced manufacturing.

There is therefore a risk of skills shortages becoming a longer-term, structural issue facing the region.

And while the total population in the region is expected to rise, those of working age will remain broadly stable – potentially limiting the future productive capacity in the region.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022

Headline forecast
Online job adverts, 2020-22

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Jobs growth in the East of England last year kept pace with the UK

However, as in most regions, the labour market started to show signs of deceleration in the second half of the year. While the number of payroll employees continued to increase every month, the pace of growth somewhat slowed down in spring.

Besides, the latest Labour Force Survey data for September to November 2022 showed towards the end of the year a slight uptick in unemployment, along with a decline in employment, as economic conditions deteriorated. Meanwhile, the number of online job adverts declined

throughout the year, falling faster than the average across all regions. Despite signs of slowdown in the labour market, the East of England remains in a favourable position compared to many other regions, benefitting from low unemployment and low rates of economic inactivity.

Employment is expected to fall in 2023, particularly in consumer-led activities and in administrative services

Employment is expected to contract in 2023. However, the decline in jobs in the East of England should be relatively limited compared to most other regions.

Employment in wholesale and retail will decline significantly in 2023, while hospitality will also fall. These two consumer-led sectors will be hardest hit by the slowdown as inflation is expected to remain high in 2023, constraining consumer spending.

But business services is also expected to see job losses, particularly in administration and support services; activities such as office administration, call centre activities, and security, which tend to be less resilient in periods of economic decline. The East of England has a relatively high proportion of jobs in these activities, resulting in a comparatively large job contraction this year. Health and social care activities is the only sector expected to grow in the region this year, reflecting the need to address the acute problems facing both parts of the sector.

Unemployment is expected to rise in 2023 but from a low base and the rate will remain below the UK. Average earnings should grow in line with the UK average, although these will be below the rate of inflation.

Long-term outlook: growing employment in knowledge-based industries

Employment growth is expected to pick up in 2024, but the level of employment will remain below the 2022 level until the following year. In the longer term, employment in the East of England will grow at a similar pace to the UK average, boosted by growth in business services activities. We also expect growth in human health and social care activities, and, to a lesser extent, information and communication services.

The forecast growth implies growing demand for high-skilled occupations. Professional and technical occupations will be the most needed, along with managerial positions.

The economic prospects for the East of England are relatively positive over the long term, with strong links to London, employment growth in highly productive sectors, and favourable demographic trends supporting increasing demand for workers.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022

Online job adverts, 2020-22

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

A buoyant labour market despite signs of slowdown

But the labour market in the capital is showing signs of deterioration. The number of online job adverts declined throughout the year, suggesting slower growth in demand for workers. The latest Labour Force Survey data for September to November 2022 also indicates that unemployment started to increase at the end of the year, after several months of decline. And more generally, indicators of economic activity in the capital confirm that the economy has been slowing down.

Close to two thirds of the jobs created in 2022 were in business services and information and communication activities, two sectors that are particularly well developed in London, partly because of the large pool of highly skilled and specialised workers based there. Other large employers include the hospitality sector and public services.

London’s jobs market less exposed to losses this year

London will not be immune to the effects of high inflation and falling household spending, which will cause a UK-wide contraction in economic activity in 2023. This will feed through to London’s labour market. But, given the capital’s typically wealthier households and lower dependence on troubled industrial sectors, London is less exposed than other UK regions this year.

However, employment is expected to fall n almost every sector of the economy and those that are most dependent on consumers will be most exposed, including wholesale and retail trade and hospitality activities. Business services – most particularly administrative and support services – are also expected to see a decline. The sector includes activities such as office administration, call centre activities, and security.

There are exceptions. Sectors that provide public services (public administration, education, health, and social care) should experience slight growth in employment this year. The information and communicatio should also be resilient with no net job losses forecast for the year.

Long-term outlook: London leading the way, at a slow pace

We forecast employment growth in 2024 to almost entirely offset the expected job losses this year, meaning the decline will be relatively short-lived, compared to previous recessions. Across the period 2023-26, employment in London will grow at the fastest pace across the UK.

Business services will be the largest recruiter, and as a result, professional occupations will be in high demand. Information and communication will continue to grow significantly, as we expect the capital to remain an attractive location for the tech industry.

We expect personal service occupations to grow at the fastest rate. As London’s population is growing and ageing, jobs relating to human health and social support will continue to be in high demand.

Along with significant investment and business activity, one of the key aspects to London’s success lies in its ability to attract workers, particularly in the context of the UK’s ageing population and shrinking workforce. Indeed, the labour force is expected to rise rapidly in the capital, fed by strong net inward migration – with pay one of the many factors drawing workers to the capital. Average earnings are typically 1.5 times higher than in the rest of the country.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022

Online job adverts, 2020-22

Headline forecast

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Headline forecast

Employment grew more slowly than elsewhere in 2022

Employment in the South East expanded in 2022, however at a slower pace than in any other region bar the North West.

Despite the slower pace, employment grew in most sectors of the economy during the past year, with hospitality and business services the largest recruiters. Yet employment contracted in two sectors: financial services – a sector that has seen jobs slowly declining in the past decades due to automation – and wholesale and

retail trade, where activity has likely been impacted by growing inflation and falling purchasing power.

There were other signs that labour market prospects were deteriorating. The number of job adverts posted online declined more sharply than other regions in 2022, suggesting a relatively stronger fall in demand for labour in the South East. Meanwhile, the latest Labour Force Survey data show a slight increase in unemployment and a decline in employment. Considering the broader UK economic context, this suggests that the region is entering 2023 with little momentum.

Employment is expected to fall in almost every sector in 2023

We expect employment in the South East to decline in 2023, at a similar pace to the UK average.

As inflation remains high, even though falling, pressure on spending will build up, so that consumer-led activities will be the most affected. It is therefore no surprise that in the South East, wholesale and reta trade is expected to record the largest fall in employment this year. Business services will also shrink, particularly administrative and support services which includes office administration, call centre activities, and security, all of them activities which tend to be less resilient in periods of economic downturn.

Health and social care will be the only sector that will continue to create net new jobs in 2023, with demand for health services still high following the pandemic. And while no sector will be spared, information and communication activities and financial services will be among the most resilient, with relatively few job losses.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise, but will remain below the national average. With the labour market remaining relatively tight in the region, earnings should rise faster than in most regions, behind only London.

Long-term outlook: growing demand to fill high-skilled roles will attract workers from elsewhere

Employment growth will pick up during 2024, but the pace of growth will remain relatively slow. And while new jobs will be created, this will not be quite enough to offset job losses from 2022. However, larger gains are expected from 2025, and the South East will remain among the fastest-growing regions of the UK over the long term.

We anticipate the main drivers of employment activity to be information and communication, business services, and hospitality. Higher skilled occupations such as professional and managerial will be most sought by employers.

The South East is one of the few regions in which the working age population is expected to expand in the long term. The region will continue to attract workers, often highly-educated, from the rest of the country and abroad, ensuring a continuous supply of labour.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022
Online job adverts, 2020-22

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Employment continued to grow in 2022 and has remained resilient so far

The largest recruiters in 2022 were public services – in particular education – and the hospitality sector. The latter is an important part of the South West economy, reflecting the size of tourism in the region, particularly in coastal areas. Information and communication activities recorded the fastest growth rate in 2022, although the sector as a whole is still small compared to some other regions.

The signs of an economic slowdown are less present in the South West than in some other parts of the country. While ONS payroll data suggest that employee growth began to decelerate in the summer, the latest Labour Force Survey data indicate that employment continued to grow towards the end of the year. It is possible that the changing

macroeconomic outlook has not yet been reflected in the labour market data. One sign of potential slowdown, though, is the number of online job adverts that generally declined throughout the year, suggesting falling demand for workers.

South West’s labour market to be resilient in 2023

The varied nature of the South West economy will help provide some protection from the decline in activity this year. We anticipate some job losses, but the region will record the smallest fall in employment in percentage terms of any region.

The largest number of job losses will be in the wholesale and retail and hospitality sectors, which will continue to be particularly affected by reduced household spending. Financial and business services, as well as information and communication, will be relatively protected and the number of job losses will be low in these sectors.

Unemployment is set for only a slight rise in 2023 and the unemployment rate will remain lower than in other regions. Alongside this, persistent inflation and ongoing labour shortages in some sectors will continue to drive pay rises. Earnings should continue to grow rapidly, albeit slightly lagging the UK this year.

Long-term outlook: fast growth despite demographic risks

The contraction in 2023 will be mild, and the South West will be the only region in the country where employment gains in 2024 are expected to offset the losses from 2023. In the rest of the country, the labour market will take until 2025 to fully recover.

Growth is expected to continue in the longer term. We forecast the South West will have the second highest average annual growth rate between 2023 and 2026, after London, led by employment growth in business services and hospitality. Meanwhile, employment in manufacturing is expected to continue to decline year on year.

We also expect an increasing demand for high-level occupations, such as managers, professional, and technical positions. This suggests a need for typically higher-skilled and qualified workers.

Yet, a growing challenge for the South West is likely to be the supply of labour. Total population growth is expected to be weak, and because the population is ageing, the working age population is set to decline. With a very low unemployment rate and already high levels of labour market participation, employment growth may rely on older people remaining in work for longer, or on national or international migration.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022

Online job adverts, 2020-22
Headline forecast

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Employment structure, 2022

000s

Source: Oxford Economics

Employment forecast

Faster growth in 2022 than the year previous, yet slower than the UK average

Scotland’s labour market showed mix results in 2022. Employment grew at a faster pace than in 2021 and recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, unemployment fell by one of the fastest rates in the country. And the number of job adverts posted online grew during the summer, whereas it was declining in most parts of the UK. Survey evidence from the Scottish Chamber of Commerce shows that labour shortages are among the greatest challenges facing firms, with recruitment

difficulties on the rise throughout 2022.

The hospitality sector led employment growth in Scotland in 2022, followed by public services (specifically education) and business services. In contrast, employment in financial services declined significantly. That sector has been shedding jobs for many years, largely as a result of automation.

Unemployment in Scotland is at an historically low level and is lower than the UK rate. Coupled with this, Scotland has not seen the same rise in inactivity observed in most parts of the UK.

Average earnings have been growing throughout the year, at a slightly lower rate than the UK average.

A mild employment fall in 2023

Employment in Scotland is set to decline in 2023 – along with everywhere else in the UK. The contraction should be relatively mild, though, and the decline is expected to be in line with the national average. High inflation and continued market uncertainty are likely to hinder business investment and restrict consumer spending.

Consumer-led services will be the hardest hit: wholesale and retail trade and hospitality will together account for more than half of all job losses in 2023. Elsewhere, the health sector and agriculture should show some employment growth this year, partially offsetting losses elsewhere.

Unemployment will start to rise in 2023 but only slightly, and from a low starting point. Meanwhile, average earnings will grow at a slightly lower rate than the UK average, although faster than last year. .

Long-term outlook: slower growth and new opportunities

Growth will pick up as soon as 2024, but it will only be in 2025 that we expect job losses from this year to be completely offset. In the longer term, we anticipate that employment growth in Scotland will lag the UK average.

Employment growth will be strongest in business service industries, as well as in hospitality and the public sector. Information and communication activities are also set to grow rapidly, although the sector will remain relatively small compared to other parts of the UK. Growth in those highly productive sectors will trigger demand for occupations that typically require a high level of knowledge and experience, primarily managerial and professional occupations. There will also be high demand for personal services occupation, as health and social care activities are expected to grow.

Meanwhile, manufacturing and industrial jobs are expected to fall sharply. This includes those in the oil and gas sector, as the industry is expected to dwindle over the longer term. While this presents a challenge for Scotland’s economy, the transition to Net Zero could also bring about opportunities, tapping into an existing base of engineers and energy specialists.

Unemployment, 2022

Online job adverts, 2020-22

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Employment finally recovered strongly in 2022

Yet the labour market has started to show signs of deterioration. As in other parts of the UK, the growth in the number of payroll

employees started to ease in the middle of 2022, a reflection of growing economic uncertainty, increased costs of living, and faltering investment. The number of online job adverts also declined, signalling a slowdown in activity.

Public services, and particularly education and health, were the largest recruiters during the year. This was followed by the hospitality and business services sectors. In particular, administrative and support services, which

includes activities such as recruitment, building management services, and call centres, grew significantly.

Unemployment in Wales declined markedly in 2022, although part of the story here is that more people have left the labour force and become inactive. There was a slight decline in inactivity at the end of the year in Wales, but this came after the sharpest rise in inactivity of any other UK region.

A limited fall in employment expected this year

We anticipate employment to fall in 2023, as economic activity declines and inflation remains high. However, job losses should be lower than in most of the country.

Consumer-led sectors – in particular wholesale and retail and hospitality – will be hardest hit, as household spending declines. Public services will be the most resilient sector.

Unemployment is expected to grow, although the unemployment rate will remain below the national average. Average earnings will continue to rise in 2023, albeit at a slightly slower rate than the rest of the UK.

Long-term outlook: a complex demographic challenge ahead

Following the 2023 decline, the labour market in Wales should pick up again in 2024. However, we expect growth to be sluggish, and the annual employment increase is forecast to be below the UK average.

Over the 2023-2026 period, business services will be the largest recruiter, with jobs created in both professional services and in administrative and support services in equal measure. Wholesale and retail an hospitality are also expected to contribute significantly to job growth. In contrast, we forecast manufacturing will continue to contract, highlighting a progressive shift in employment structure towards a more service-based economy.

As a result, we anticipate that the demand for higher level occupations, including professionals and managers, will rise significantly in the next couple of years, while the demand for manufacturing and sales related occupations will be more limited.

The Welsh labour market is set to face various challenges over the next couple of years. The economy has been successful at creating jobs over the last decade, but much of the growth has been concentrated in cities such as Cardiff, with other parts of the country seeing much lower rates of job creation. These trends are likely to continue as the economy continues to transition towards high-value services. A relatively low skills base, coupled with high rates of economic inactivity and a weak demographic outlook for much of the country suggest that employers could face ongoing recruitment challenges.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022

Headline forecast
Online job adverts, 2020-22

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

000s

Source: Oxford Economics

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

Growth was strong in 2022, despite economic turmoil

Employment grew by 2.7% in Northern Ireland in 2022, above the UK average. The accommodation and food sector had the fastest rate of growth, followed by education and professional services. Transportation & storage activities also grew rapidly, although this did not translate into as many jobs given the small size of the sector.

Meanwhile, unemployment declined during the year, although not as quickly as in some other parts of the country. The unemployment rate was already low by UK standards, and it remains one of the lowest in the country, meaning there is less scope for contraction.

Economic inactivity, which had risen considerably in 2021, declined in 2022. However, this continues to be a concern: by the end of 2022, more than one in four working-age individuals in Northern Ireland were inactive, the highest share in the country.

Sharp fall in employment expected in 2023

Northern Ireland is forecast to be one of the weakest performing parts of the UK this year, partly reflecting its sectoral structure. As a result, employment is expected to decline by more than the UK average in 2023. In absolute terms, this means that the equivalent of half of the jobs created in 2022 will disappear in 2023.

We expect inflation to remain high, with the worst affected sectors being those that are directly linked to consumer spending – wholesale and retail trade and hospitality. These will account for the bulk of job losses during the year. Public services, which account for a large share of the economy, should be relatively protected and any job losses will be small.

As a result of job losses, unemployment is expected to grow sharply, but from an historical low. Average earnings will continue to grow, although at a slower rate than in most of the UK.

Long-term outlook: sectoral restructuring and demographic slowdown create important challenges

Growth prospects for Northern Ireland look relatively weak. While the labour market will pick up in 2024, growth will be slow, and employment will remain below the 2022 level until the following year. Over the longer term, we expect Northern Ireland to record one of the lowest rates of employment growth in the country.

The economy is transitioning away from manufacturing and towards high value services, but this presents challenges on both sides. Manufacturing activities are set to decline, and the relative size of the sector in the economy means that the number of jobs to be lost over the years could be significant. In contrast, high value services such as information and communication and business services are expected to rise at the fastest pace over the long term, but the relatively small size of those sectors in the current economy means that the actual number of jobs created will be relatively low.

Another challenge in Northern Ireland is labour supply. The working age population is forecast to grow slowly, and inactivity has been a growing and persistent issue.

There may be scope for new activities to develop, tapping into existing capabilities. Northern Ireland has an established aerospace and defence industry and is pioneering the manufacture of hydrogen buses. The Net Zero agenda could provide opportunities to further develop advanced manufacturing activities.

Employment structure, 2022

Unemployment, 2022
Online job adverts, 2020-22

Expected net jobs created by sector, 2023-26
Unemployment rate forecast

% Unemployment rate Source: Oxford Economics

S a lar sis

The following pages reveal the average salaries in a variety of key roles. These salaries cover a range of job functions and span the 12 regions of the UK, as well as the top four largest cities: London, Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds. We have included commentary from Adecco experts across each of these regions regarding hiring trends and employer sentiment within these regions.

The salaries are derived from data provided by Salary.com, the market leader in compensation software since its founding in 1999. As of today, Salary.com’s compensation database of aggregated employer-reported data has grown to 800 million data points over 45,000 geographies in 22 countries. Salaries have been verified with Adecco consultants across all regions and adjusted accordingly to ensure accurate representation of current pay given the rapid wage growth in recent months.

While competitors often utilise or completely rely on self-reported or market-estimated data, Salary.com relies solely on employer-reported data, which also includes additional bonuses or compensation where applicable for the role. Aggregated employer-reported data is an assessment of a position within a market by utilising multiple employer-reported salary surveys as the backbone of the research. The results are a blend of those data sources.

We have selected commonly advertised job titles at different seniorities across multiple functions, providing the median paid salary for a permanent full-time employee. As such, this guide can support talent planning for your whole organisation or department.

Accurate and objective salary benchmarking is key – both for attracting the people you need to grow your business and for retaining key talent within your organisation. This guide offers a broad overview of salaries in the UK. If you are looking for more granular market insight or to understand how to benchmark salaries for a niche role, your Adecco consultant will be happy to help.

 North East  North West  Yorkshire & the H  East Midlands  West Midlands  East of England

Greater London
 South East
 South West
 Wales
 Scotland
 Northern Ireland

Accountancy and Finance

Management Accountant
Finance Assistant
Accounts Payable Assistant
Credit Controller
Bookkeeper
Finance Director
Finance Business Partner
Financial Analyst
Payroll Administrator
Payroll Manager

IT

IT Business Analyst
Infrastructure Engineer
Service Desk Analyst
nformation Security Manage
IT Manager
IT Project Manager
Network Engineer
IT support Engineer
Software Developer

Supply Chain and Logistics

Supply Chain Planner
Senior Buyer
Inventory Control Manager
Logistics Coordinator
Logistics Manager
Supply Chain Director
Supply Chain Manager
Transportation Manager
Van/Delivery Driver
Warehouse Manager
Warehouse Operative

Human Resources

Compensation and Benefits Manager
Employee Relations Manager
HR Assistant
HR Director
HR Advisor
HR Manager
Learning & Development Manager
Recruiter
Talent Acquisition Manager

Administrative and Business Support

Personal Assistant
Executive Assistant
Secretary
Legal Secretary
Office Manager
Office Administrator
Project Coordinator
Puchasing Administrator
Receptionist

Manufacturing and Industrial

Electrical Engineer Maintenance Engineer Commissioning Engineer
Assembly/Machine Operative
Manufacturing Engineer
Manufacturing Manager Materials Handler Mechanical Engineer
Manufacturing Technician

Sales and Customer Service

Senior Account Manager
Business Development Executive
Business Development Manager
Customer Service Manager
Customer Service Advisor
Retail Store Manager
Sales Assistant
Sales Manager
Sales Executive
Sales Administrator

Marketing

Advertising Manager
Content Marketing Executive
Marketing Assistant
Head of Marketing
Marketing Manager
Marketing Executive
Events Director

City of London Top 10

Teaching Assistants

Support Workers

SEN Teaching Assistants

Learning Support Assistants

Nannies

Recruitment Consultants

Graduate Teaching Assistants

Project Managers

Primary Teachers

Java Developers

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £48,100

Finance Assistant £26,700

Accounts Payable Assistant £29,200

Credit Controller £28,100

Bookkeeper £32,000

Finance Director £121,600

Finance Business Partner £76,000

Financial Analyst £47,700

Payroll Administrator £38,300

Payroll Manager £57,100

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £30,700

Executive Assistant £45,000

Secretary £30,000

Legal Secretary £40,000

Office Manager £50,300

Office Administrator £31,000

Project Coordinator £50,600

Puchasing Administrator £24,500

Receptionist £30,000

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £53,700

Maintenance Engineer £56,600

Commissioning Engineer £46,000

Assembly/Machine Operative £21,000

Manufacturing Engineer £36,900

Manufacturing Manager £59,600

Materials Handler £22,300

Mechanical Engineer £43,900

Manufacturing Technician £24,700

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £40,500

Senior Buyer £50,600

Inventory Control Manager £44,500

Logistics Coordinator £36,300

Logistics Manager £69,800

Supply Chain Director £108,600

Supply Chain Manager £67,800

Transportation Manager £44,200

Van/Delivery Driver £27,700

Warehouse Manager £43,600

Warehouse Operative £22,200

Already in 2023 we have seen salary inflation not ease, particularly within Central London. Sectors to note are Finance, Facilities and Marketing where salary rates are being pushed to the top of most bands when negotiating job offers. Core benefits now must include a hybrid option for nearly all office based roles.

Across Greater London retention of our existing temporary associate talent pools are being maintained through a focus on associate redeployment and Adecco’s market leading range of Associate lifestyle benefits. We continue to consult with all clients on their recruitment process, ensuring every stage is understood and shared with each candidates prior to an introduction to the client. This is a now a key element on every permanent vacancy we recruit for and creates stronger candidate engagement as they are clear on how many steps they will need to take to secure a new permanent role.

Scott Barham – Regional Director

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £66,900

Business Development Executive £47,700

Business Development Manager £80,500

Customer Service Manager £56,900

Customer Service Advisor £26,800

Retail Store Manager £37,100

Sales Assistant £26,500

Sales Manager £86,900

Sales Executive £47,600

Sales Administrator £33,400

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £59,200

Content Marketing Executive £55,400

Marketing Assistant £35,000

Head of Marketing £111,900

Marketing Manager £73,100

Marketing Executive £46,600

Events Director £81,700

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £85,600

Employee Relations Manager £62,300

HR Assistant £33,000

HR Director £122,900

HR Advisor £43,500

HR Manager £67,200

Learning & Development Manager £69,800

Recruiter £42,300

Talent Acquisition Manager £70,600

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£62,000
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£79,000
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£46,400
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

Birmingham Top 10

Support Workers

Quantity Surveyors

Business Development Managers

Teaching Assistants

Recruitment Consultants

Project Managers

Warehouse Operatives

Administrators

Solicitors

Customer Service Advisors

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £43,400

Finance Assistant £24,100

Accounts Payable Asstant £26,300

Credit Controller £25,300

Bookkeeper £25,400

Finance Director £115,500

Finance Business Partner £69,300

Financial Analyst £43,000

Payroll Administrator £34,600

Payroll Manager £51,800

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £27,700

Executive Assistant £36,900

Secretary £22,700

Legal Secretary £28,900

Office Manager £45,400

Office Administrator £24,400

Project Coordinator £45,900

Puchasing Administrator £22,400

Receptionist £23,100

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £48,800

Maintenance Engineer £51,300

Commissioning Engineer £41,500

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £33,300

Manufacturing Manager £54,900

Materials Handler £21,800

Mechanical Engineer £39,600

Manufacturing Technician £22,300

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £36,500

Senior Buyer £45,700

Inventory Control Manager £40,200

Logistics Coordinator £32,800

Logistics Manager £63,600

Supply Chain Director £102,100

Supply Chain Manager £61,800

Transportation Manager £39,900

Van/Delivery Driver £25,100

Warehouse Manager £39,400

Warehouse Operative £21,400

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £60,400

Business Development Executive £43,000

Business Development Manager £74,200

Customer Service Manager £51,400

Customer Service Advisor £24,200

Retail Store Manager £33,500

Sales Assistant £24,000

Sales Manager £80,100

Sales Executive £42,900

Sales Administrator £30,100

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £53,400

Content Marketing Executive £50,000

Marketing Assistant £31,900

Head of Marketing £106,200

Marketing Manager £66,700

Marketing Executive £42,100

Events Director £73,800

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £78,000

Employee Relations Manager £56,500

HR Assistant £26,000

HR Director £116,800

HR Advisor £38,200

HR Manoger £61,300

Learning & Development Manager £63,000

Recruiter £38,200

Talent Acquisition Manager £64,000

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£55,900
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£72,700
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£42,100
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

Manchester Top 10

Support Workers

Teaching Assistants

Business Development Managers

Customer Service Advisors

Recruitment Consultants

Software Engineers

Project Managers

Quantity Surveyors

Solicitors

Account Managers

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £44,300

Finance Assistant £24,600

Accounts Payable Asstant £26,900

Credit Controller £25,900

Bookkeeper £26,000

Finance Director £116,700

Finance Business Partner £70,600

Financial Analyst £43,900

Payroll Administrator £35,300

Payroll Manager £52,900

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £28,300

Executive Assistant £37,700

Secretary £22,800

Legal Secretary £29,500

Office Manager £46,400

Office Administrator £24,900

Project Coordinator £46,800

Puchasing Administrator £22,800

Receptionist £23,500

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £49,700

Maintenance Engineer £52,400

Commissioning Engineer £42,400

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £34,000

Manufacturing Manager £55,800

Materials Handler £21,900

Mechanical Engineer £40,400

Manufacturing Technician £22,800

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £37,300

Senior Buyer £46,700

Inventory Control Manager £41,000

Logistics Coordinator £33,500

Logistics Manager £64,900

Supply Chain Director £103,400

Supply Chain Manager £63,000

Transportation Manager £40,700

Van/Delivery Driver £25,600

Warehouse Manager £40,200

Warehouse Operative £21,500

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £61,700

Business Development Executive £44,000

Business Development Manager £75,500

Customer Service Manager £52,500

Customer Service Advisor £24,700

Retail Store Manager £34,200

Sales Assistant £24,500

Sales Manager £81,500

Sales Executive £43,900

Sales Administrator £30,700

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £54,500

Content Marketing Executive £51,000

Marketing Assistant £32,100

Head of Marketing £107,300

Marketing Manager £68,000

Marketing Executive £43,000

Events Director £75,300

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £79,500

Employee Relations Manager £57,700

HR Assistant £26,600

HR Director £118,000

HR Advisor £39,000

HR Manoger £62,400

_Learning& Development Manager £64,300

Recruiter £39,000

Talent Acquisition Manager £65,300

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£57,100
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£74,000
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£42,900
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

Leeds Top 10

Support Workers

Warehouse Operatives

Administrators

Customer Service Advisors

Quantity Surveyors

Recruitment Consultants

Business Development Managers

Project Managers

Credit Controllers

Solicitors

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £44,900

Finance Assistant £24,900

Accounts Payable Asstant £27,200

Credit Controller £26,200

Bookkeeper £26,300

Finance Director £117,400

Finance Business Partner £71,400

Financial Analyst £44,500

Payroll Administrator £35,800

Payroll Manager £53,500

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £28,700

Executive Assistant £38,200

Secretary £22,900

Legal Secretary £29,800

Office Manager £47,000

Office Administrator £25,300

Project Coordinator £47,400

Puchasing Administrator £23,000

Receptionist £23,700

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £50,300

Maintenance Engineer £53,000

Commissioning Engineer £43,000

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £34,400

Manufacturing Manager £56,400

Materials Handler £21,900

Mechanical Engineer £40,900

Manufacturing Technician £23,100

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £37,800

Senior Buyer £47,300

Inventory Control Manager £41,500

Logistics Coordinator £33,900

Logistics Manager £65,600

Supply Chain Director £104,100

Supply Chain Manager £63,700

Transportation Manager £41,200

Van/Delivery Driver £25,900

Warehouse Manager £40,700

Warehouse Operative £21,500

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £62,500

Business Development Executive £44,500

Business Development Manager £76,200

Customer Service Manager £53,100

Customer Service Advisor £25,000

Retail Store Manager £34,600

Sales Assistant £24,800

Sales Manager £82,300

Sales Executive £44,400

Sales Administrator £31,100

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £55,200

Content Marketing Executive £51,700

Marketing Assistant £32,300

Head of Marketing £108,000

Marketing Manager £68,800

Marketing Executive £43,500

Events Director £76,300

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £80,400

Employee Relations Manager £58,300

HR Assistant £26,900

HR Director £118,700

HR Advisor £39,500

HR Manoger £63,100

Learning & Development Manager £65,100

Recruiter £39,500

Talent Acquisition Manager £66,100

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£57,800
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£74,700
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£43,400
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

North East Top 10

Support Workers

Care Assistants

Warehouse Operatives

Teaching Assistants

Customer Service Advisors

Cleaners

Health Care Assistants

Administrators

Learning Support Assistants

Production Operatives

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £44,400

Finance Assistant £24,600

Accounts Payable Assistant £27,000

Credit Controller £25,900

Bookkeeper £26,000

Finance Director £116,800

Finance Business Partner £70,700

Financial Analyst £44,000

Payroll Administrator £35,400

Payroll Manager £52,900

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £28,400

Executive Assistant £37,800

Secretary £25,000

Legal Secretary £29,500

Office Manager £46,500

Office Administrator £23,500

Project Coordinator £46,900

Puchasing Administrator £22,800

Receptionist £23,500

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £49,800

Maintenance Engineer £52,400

Commissioning Engineer £42,500

Assembly/Machine Operative £23,000

Manufacturing Engineer £34,000

Manufacturing Manager £55,900

Materials Handler £21,900

Mechanical Engineer £40,500

Manufacturing Technician £22,800

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £37,400

Senior Buyer £46,700

Inventory Control Manager £41,100

Logistics Coordinator £33,500

Logistics Manager £65,000

Supply Chain Director £103,500

Supply Chain Manager £63,100

Transportation Manager £40,800

Van/Delivery Driver £25,600

Warehouse Manager £40,300

Warehouse Operative £23,000

As we start 2023 we are still seeing a highly competitive recruitment market in the North East. Salary is still a main priority for candidates looking for a new role and talent is in huge demand.

We are seeing a rise in requests for temporary labour support across a number of sectors with roles including administration and warehouse operatives. There is still a resistance in the manufacturing industry to increase salaries, which resulted in an increase in turnover as workers had a large number of opportunities across the marketplace with higher salaries offered.

Early signs for the year ahead are that demand for workers will continue to grow across all sectors, and we expect to see a highly competitive job market across the North East through 2023.

Kim MacDonald – Regional Manager

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £61,800

Business Development Executive £44,000

Business Development Manager £75,500

Customer Service Manager £52,600

Customer Service Advisor £24,800

Retail Store Manager £34,300

Sales Assistant £24,500

Sales Manager £81,600

Sales Executive £43,900

Sales Administrator £30,800

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £54,600

Content Marketing Executive £51,100

Marketing Assistant £32,100

Head of Marketing £107,400

Marketing Manager £68,100

Marketing Executive £43,100

Events Director £75,400

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £79,600

Employee Relations Manager £57,800

HR Assistant £28,000

HR Director £118,000

HR Advisor £39,100

HR Manager £62,500

Learning & Development Manager £64,400

Recruiter £39,100

Talent Acquisition Manager £65,400

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£57,200
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£74,000
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£43,000
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

North West Top 10

Support Workers

Teaching Assistants

Care Assistants

Warehouse Operatives

Customer Service Advisors

Health Care Assistants

Cleaners

Administrators

Registered Nurses

Management Accountants

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant 46,700

Finance Assistant 25,900

Accounts Payable Assistant 28,400

Credit Controller 27,300

Bookkeeper 27,400

Finance Director 119,800

Finance Business Partner 74,000

Financial Analyst 46,300

Payroll Administrator 37,200

Payroll Manager 55,600

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £29,900

Executive Assistant £39,700

Secretary £23,100

Legal Secretary £31,000

Office Manager £48,900

Office Administrator £26,300

Project Coordinator £49,200

Puchasing Administrator £23,800

Receptionist £24,600

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £52,300

Maintenance Engineer £54,900

Commissioning Engineer £44,700

Assembly/Machine Operative £22,800

Manufacturing Engineer £35,800

Manufacturing Manager £58,200

Materials Handler £22,100

Mechanical Engineer £42,600

Manufacturing Technician £24,000

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £39,300

Senior Buyer £49,200

Inventory Control Manager £43,200

Logistics Coordinator £35,200

Logistics Manager £68,000

Supply Chain Director £106,700

Supply Chain Manager £66,000

Transportation Manager £42,900

Van/Delivery Driver £26,900

Warehouse Manager £42,400

Warehouse Operative £23,000

There continues to be high demand in the North West for a range of candidates including workers in the food manufacturing, HR, production, logistics, finance and sales professions. We urge businesses to be competitive around benefits, salaries and flexibility to attract and retain their best workforce. We continue to work with businesses to help improve their recruitment processes and development programmes.

The demand for temporary and permanent recruitment in the region will continue to remain high throughout 2023, with some seasonal peaks showing for short term needs.

The North West continues to face a challenges with bridging the skills gap, with a shortage of job seekers being seen across all industries and sectors. Organisations must continue to understand the importance of meeting candidates’ expectations in such a candidate-short market. This includes making job offers quickly, to secure individuals, continue to offer remote and hybrid working where possible, champion diversity and inclusion, and support the mental health and wellbeing of their staff.

Alison Hogg – Operations Manager

Talent attraction and retention remained a challenge for our customers in the region in 2022. The demand for permanent talent increased by 31% compared to 2021 and the competition for niche professional talent was intense, especially in the Housing, Property and NHS sectors.

Our clients in the Housing sector have responded to the competition for candidates by offering a range of benefits, such as much more flexibility on hybrid working, trialling a 4-day week and implementing a cost of living pay increase. We expect the high demand for talent in the sector to continue in 2023 in response to increased compliance requirements.

Jonathan Rayfield Operational Director – Public Sector

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £65,000

Business Development Executive £46,300

Business Development Manager £78,700

Customer Service Manager £55,300

Customer Service Advisor £25,000

Retail Store Manager £36,000

Sales Assistant £25,800

Sales Manager £84,900

Sales Executive £46,200

Sales Administrator £26,000

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £57,500

Content Marketing Executive £53,800

Marketing Assistant £32,800

Head of Marketing £110,200

Marketing Manager £71,300

Marketing Executive £45,300

Events Director £79,400

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £83,300

Employee Relations Manager £60,600

HR Assistant £28,000

HR Director £121,100

HR Advisor £38,000

HR Manoger £65,400

Learning & Development Manager £67,800

Recruiter £41,100

Talent Acquisition Manager £68,600

IT

Job Title Median Salary

IT Business Analyst 50,000

Infrastructure Engineer 60,200

Service Desk Analyst 27,000

Information Security Manager 65,000

ITManager 77,100

IT Project Manager 57,500

Network Engineer 45,100

IT support Engineer 32,500

Software Developer 55,000

Yorkshire & the Humber Top 10

Support Workers

Warehouse Operatives

Care Assistants

Teaching Assistants

Customer Service Advisors

Cleaners

Administrators

Production Operatives

Health Care Assistants

Registered Nurses

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £43,500

Finance Assistant £24,100

Accounts Payable Assistant £26,400

Credit Controller £25,400

Bookkeeper £25,500

Finance Director £115,600

Finance Business Partner £69,400

Financial Analyst £43,100

Payroll Administrator £34,600

Payroll Manager £51,900

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £27,800

Executive Assistant £37,000

Secretary £23,500

Legal Secretary £28,900

Office Manager £45,500

Office Administrator £24,500

Project Coordinator £46,000

Puchasing Administrator £24,000

Receptionist £23,100

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £48,800

Maintenance Engineer £51,400

Commissioning Engineer £41,600

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £33,300

Manufacturing Manager £54,900

Materials Handler £21,800

Mechanical Engineer £39,700

Manufacturing Technician £22,300

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £36,600

Senior Buyer £45,800

Inventory Control Manager £40,200

Logistics Coordinator £32,800

Logistics Manager £63,700

Supply Chain Director £102,200

Supply Chain Manager £61,900

Transportation Manager £39,900

Van/Delivery Driver £25,100

Warehouse Manager £39,400

Warehouse Operative £21,400

Yorkshire continues to be one of the UK’s booming markets. Employment in 2023 is expected to increase by 1.5% in Leeds, 1.2% in Sheffield with 0.9% increases for Rotherham and Hull.

Employers are still very aware of skill shortages and due to this, the timeframe of candidates securing permanent work is decreasing. Salaries remain very competitive across Yorkshire, as candidates have a lot of choice when it comes to their prospective new employer, so with this choice, confidence is growing to demand higher salaries.

Noticeable growth is being seen in sectors such as Digital, Finance, Call Centres and Manufacturing. There are also large scale logistics hubs being developed across the county, showing economic confidence for the region.

Kim MacDonald – Regional Manager

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £60,500

Business Development Executive £43,100

Business Development Manager £74,300

Customer Service Manager £51,500

Customer Service Advisor £24,300

Retail Store Manager £33,500

Sales Assistant £24,000

Sales Manager £80,200

Sales Executive £43,000

Sales Administrator £30,100

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £53,500

Content Marketing Executive £50,100

Marketing Assistant £31,900

Head of Marketing £106,300

Marketing Manager £66,800

Marketing Executive £42,200

Events Director £73,900

Human Resources

Job Title	Median Salary
Compensation and Benefits Manager	£78,100
Employee Relations Manager	£56,600
HR Assistont	£26,100
HR Director	£116,800
HRAdvisor	£38,200
HR Manager	£61,400
Learning& Development Manager	£63,100
Recruiter	£38,300
Talent Acquisition Manager	£64,100

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£56,000
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£72,800
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£42,100
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

East Midlands Top 10

Support Workers

Warehouse Operatives

Care Assistants

Production Operatives

Cleaners

Teaching Assistants

Administrators

Health Care Assistants

Customer Service Advisors

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £44,900

Finance Assistant £24,900

Accounts Payable Assistant £27,200

Credit Controller £26,200

Bookkeeper £26,300

Finance Director £117,400

Finance Business Partner £71,400

Financial Analyst £44,400

Payroll Administrator £35,700

Payroll Manager £53,500

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £28,700

Executive Assistant £38,200

Secretary £22,900

Legal Secretary £29,800

Office Manager £47,000

Office Administrator £25,200

Project Coordinator £47,400

Puchasing Administrator £23,000

Receptionist £23,700

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £50,300

Maintenance Engineer £52,900

Commissioning Engineer £42,900

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £34,400

Manufacturing Manager £56,300

Materials Handler £21,900

Mechanical Engineer £40,900

Manufacturing Technician £23,000

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £37,700

Senior Buyer £47,200

Inventory Control Manager £41,500

Logistics Coordinator £33,900

Logistics Manager £65,600

Supply Chain Director £104,100

Supply Chain Manager £63,700

Transportation Manager £41,200

Van/Delivery Driver £25,900

Warehouse Manager £40,700

Warehouse Operative £21,500

Overall, job losses in 2023 will offset around half of the gains made in 2022. Employment growth is expected to slowly resume in 2024, gaining pace thereafter.

As existing jobs disappear and new jobs are created that require different skills, the region faces a challenge to ensure employees have the requisite skills.

Kim MacDonald – Regional Manager

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £62,400

Business Development Executive £44,500

Business Development Manager £76,200

Customer Service Manager £53,100

Customer Service Advisor £25,000

Retail Store Manager £34,600

Sales Assistant £24,800

Sales Manager £82,200

Sales Executive £44,400

Sales Administrator £31,100

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £55,200

Content Marketing Executive £51,600

Marketing Assistant £32,300

Head of Marketing £108,100

Marketing Manager £68,700

Marketing Executive £43,500

Events Director £76,200

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £80,300

Employee Relations Manager £58,300

HR Assistant £26,900

HR Director £118,600

HR Advisor £39,400

HR Manager £63,100

Learning & Development Manager £65,100

Recruiter £39,500

Talent Acquisition Manager £66,000

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£57,800
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£74,700
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£43,400
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

Staff Nurses

West Midlands Top 10

Support Workers

Warehouse Operatives

Care Assistants

Teaching Assistants

Administrators

Cleaners

Health Care Assistants

Customer Service Advisors

Production Operatives

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £44,900

Finance Assistant £24,900

Accounts Payable Assistant £27,200

Credit Controller £26,200

Bookkeeper £26,300

Finance Director £117,400

Finance Business Partner £71,400

Financial Analyst £44,400

Payroll Administrator £35,700

Payroll Manager £53,500

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £28,700

Executive Assistant £38,200

Secretary £22,900

Legal Secretary £29,800

Office Manager £47,000

Office Administrator £25,200

Project Coordinator £47,400

Puchasing Administrator £23,000

Receptionist £23,700

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £50,300

Maintenance Engineer £52,900

Commissioning Engineer £42,900

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £34,400

Manufacturing Manager £56,300

Materials Handler £21,900

Mechanical Engineer £40,900

Manufacturing Technician £23,000

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £37,700

Senior Buyer £47,200

Inventory Control Manager £41,500

Logistics Coordinator £33,900

Logistics Manager £65,600

Supply Chain Director £104,100

Supply Chain Manager £63,700

Transportation Manager £41,200

Van/Delivery Driver £25,900

Warehouse Manager £40,700

Warehouse Operative £21,500

At the start of 2023 we have seen an increase in competition from companies trying to attract candidates. Salaries are still on the increase as well as organisations looking at other benefits and their Employee Value Proposition. Hybrid and flexible working are still top of the agenda for many people looking to move, as is pension benefits and holiday allowance.

There has been a slight increase in unemployment rates meaning more candidates in the region are available for work. However, the market is still very tight and we continue to see candidates receiving multiple job offers and counter offers from their existing employers.

The manufacturing industry is still thriving, as is engineering, life sciences and professional services.

Sara Mitchell – Regional Manager

With the end of the financial year approaching fast, we have been supporting our clients in the NHS in securing talent to deliver key projects by the end of March. In spring, we expect an increased demand for both interim and contract roles to deliver exciting IT and Digital Transformation Programmes.

The sector is still experiencing candidate shortages across all skill levels and role profiles, and attraction remains difficult with rate and IR35 restrictions. Looking ahead, we anticipate technical resource will be in high demand as organisations move forward with planned IT upgrades to deliver on key transformation initiatives.

Adam Cotterill Senior Business Manager – NHS

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £62,400

Business Development Executive £44,500

Business Development Manager £76,200

Customer Service Manager £53,100

Customer Service Advisor £25,000

Retail Store Manager £34,600

Sales Assistant £24,800

Sales Manager £82,200

Sales Executive £44,400

Sales Administrator £31,100

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £55,200

Content Marketing Executive £51,600

Marketing Assistant £32,300

Head of Marketing £108,000

Marketing Manager £68,700

Marketing Executive £43,500

Events Director £76,200

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £80,400

Employee Relations Manager £58,300

HR Assistant £26,900

HR Director £118,600

HR Advisor £39,400

HR Manager £63,100

Learning & Development Manager £65,100

Recruiter £39,500

Talent Acquisition Manager £66,100

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£57,800
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£74,700
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£43,400
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

East of England Top 10

Support Workers

Care Assistants

Warehouse Operatives

Cleaners

Health Care Assistants

Administrators

Labourers

Production Operatives

Customer Service Advisors

Registered Nurses

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £45,300

Finance Assistant £25,100

Accounts Payable Assistant £27,500

Credit Controller £26,400

Bookkeeper £26,600

Finance Director £118,000

Finance Business Partner £72,000

Financial Analyst £44,900

Payroll Administrator £27,000

Payroll Manager £36,000

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £36,000

Executive Assistant £38,500

Secretary £22,900

Legal Secretary £30,100

Office Manager £37,000

Office Administrator £25,500

Project Coordinator £35,000

Puchasing Administrator £23,200

Receptionist £23,900

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £50,800

Maintenance Engineer £45,000

Commissioning Engineer £43,400

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £34,700

Manufacturing Manager £56,800

Materials Handler £21,900

Mechanical Engineer £41,300

Manufacturing Technician £23,300

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £38,100

Senior Buyer £47,700

Inventory Control Manager £41,900

Logistics Coordinator £30,000

Logistics Manager £66,200

Supply Chain Director £104,700

Supply Chain Manager £64,300

Transportation Manager £41,600

Van/Delivery Driver £26,100

Warehouse Manager £41,100

Warehouse Operative £21,600

Throughout the East of England the need for temporary workers has been steadily declining through Q4 into January 2022 and instead the demand for permanent hires rises. This trend is no doubt a reaction to the restricted labour market; with less people readily available for work, and a highly competitive job market, employers have elected to invest in permanent workforces to counteract the flow of resignations to businesses that are able to react quickly and raise salaries in order to attract prospective employees out of their existing roles.

There is a slight uptick in the number of candidates entering the permenent employment market, a consequence of business closure, supply chain issues and a need to cut costs. At present this is not significently affecting the imbalance of job vacancies versus applicants but we would expect this to change as we move into Q2 2023. As with the rest of the UK, salary inflation remains to be the primary driver for resignations and the ‘bidding wars’ are expected to continue throughout 2023.

Manufacturing, Logistics and Food Production Industries domiate the East of England in terms of labour demand.

Meg Rayner – Regional Manager

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £63,100

Business Development Executive £44,900

Business Development Manager £76,800

Customer Service Manager £40,000

Customer Service Advisor £25,300

Retail Store Manager £35,000

Sales Assistant £25,000

Sales Manager £82,800

Sales Executive £44,800

Sales Administrator £28,000

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £55,800

Content Marketing Executive £52,200

Marketing Assistant £30,000

Head of Marketing £108,500

Marketing Manager £50,000

Marketing Executive £43,900

Events Director £77,000

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £81,100

Employee Relations Manager £58,900

HR Assistant £27,200

HR Director £119,300

HR Advisor £35,000

HR Manager £50,000

Learning & Development Manager £65,800

Recruiter £39,900

Talent Acquisition Manager £66,600

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£58,400
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£75,300
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£43,800
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

Greater London Top 10

Support Workers

Project Managers

Software Engineers

Business Analyst

DevOps Engineers

Data Engineers

Java Developers

Account Managers

Business Development Managers

Teaching Assistants

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £46,600

Finance Assistant £25,800

Accounts Payable Assistant £28,300

Credit Controller £27,200

Bookkeeper £27,300

Finance Director £119,600

Finance Business Partner £73,800

Financial Analyst £46,100

Payroll Administrator £37,100

Payroll Manager £55,400

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £29,800

Executive Assistant £39,600

Secretary £23,100

Legal Secretary £31,000

Office Manager £48,800

Office Administrator £26,200

Project Coordinator £49,100

Puchasing Administrator £23,800

Receptionist £24,500

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £52,100

Maintenance Engineer £54,900

Commissioning Engineer £44,600

Assembly/Machine Operative £21,000

Manufacturing Engineer £35,700

Manufacturing Manager £58,100

Materials Handler £22,100

Mechanical Engineer £42,500

Manufacturing Technician £23,900

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £39,200

Senior Buyer £49,000

Inventory Control Manager £43,100

Logistics Coordinator £35,200

Logistics Manager £67,800

Supply Chain Director £106,500

Supply Chain Manager £65,900

Transportation Manager £42,800

Van/Delivery Driver £26,800

Warehouse Manager £42,300

Warehouse Operative £21,800

In the Life Sciences sector, the demand for permanent hires have once again become the priority in 2022. Clients are already looking to rebuild and cement their structure and their foothold in the UK and this trend is expected to continue in 2023.

In 2023, we have already seen an improvement in our clients’ confidence, recruitment procedures, and retention efforts. In order to remain competitive in the labour market, employers are now more willing to offer better remuneration packages, more flexible and remote working arrangements, health and wellness benefits, and opportunities for career advancement. There is a continuous willingness among employers in the sector to prioritise employee development and offer more benefits to attract and retain the best talent.

Tom Bryan

Principal Recruitment Consultant Life Sciences

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title	Median Salary
Senior Account Manager	£64,800
Business Development Executive	£46,200
Business Development Manager	£78,500
Customer Service Manager	£55,200
Customer Service Advisor	£26,000
Retail Store Manager	£35,900
Sales Assistant	£25,700
Sales Manager	£84,800
Sales Executive	£46,100
Sales Administrator	£32,300

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £57,300

Content Marketing Executive £53,600

Marketing Assistant £32,700

Head of Marketing £110,000

Marketing Manager £71,100

Marketing Executive £45,200

Events Director £79,200

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £83,100

Employee Relations Manager £60,400

HR Assistant £27,900

HR Director £120,900

HR Advisor £41,000

HR Manager £65,300

Learning & Development Manager £67,600

Recruiter £41,000

Talent Acquisition Manager £68,400

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£60,000
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£76,900
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£45,000
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

South East Top 10

Support Workers

Care Assistants

Warehouse Operatives

Cleaners

Administrators

Health Care Assistants

Teaching Assistants

Labourers

Customer Service Advisors

Registered Nurses

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title	Median Salary
Management Accountant	£47,700
Finance Assistant	£26,400
Accounts Payable Assistant	£28,900
Credit Controller	£27,800
Bookkeeper	£27,900
Finance Director	£120,900
Finance Business Partner	£75,300
Financial Analyst	£47,200
Payroll Administrator	£27,000
Payroll Manager	£36,000

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £30,400

Executive Assistant £40,500

Secretary £23,400

Legal Secretary £31,700

Office Manager £37,000

Office Administrator £26,800

Project Coordinator £35,000

Puchasing Administrator £24,300

Receptionist £25,100

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £45,000

Maintenance Engineer £45,000

Commissioning Engineer £45,600

Assembly/Machine Operative £21,000

Manufacturing Engineer £36,500

Manufacturing Manager £59,100

Materials Handler £22,200

Mechanical Engineer £41,000

Manufacturing Technician £24,500

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £40,100

Senior Buyer £50,200

Inventory Control Manager £44,100

Logistics Coordinator £30,000

Logistics Manager £69,200

Supply Chain Director £107,900

Supply Chain Manager £67,200

Transportation Manager £43,700

Van/Delivery Driver £27,400

Warehouse Manager £43,200

Warehouse Operative £22,100

Going into 2023 candidates in the South East continue to have an abundance of job opportunities available to them. Remote and hybrid working opportunities are becoming increasingly standard where possible as companies try to attract top candidates. Annual leave allocations and salaries are also being reviewed in a bid to do the same. Beyond flexibility, candidates in the South East highlight location and ease of getting to work as key drivers in their decision making.

Businesses working across sectors are finding that a gap in skills is having an impact on productivity and in order to resolve this, employers are increasingly looking for way of upskilling and re-training existing employees. We’ve also seen many employers review their Employee Value Proposition and encouragingly making diversity and inclusion, as well as employee wellbeing, central to their identity.

Skilled and higher paid roles are seeing an increase in candidate availability but mid and lower skilled roles remain the most difficult to fill. The demand for temporary staff also remains high in the South East, with businesses seeing the value temporary staff can bring. The key to temporary staff retention starts at the on-boarding stage and our clients are making the interview process quicker for all employment types, in order to avoid losing good candidates during the process and we would urge all business to do the same.

Kim Gordon – Regional Manager

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £66,300

Business Development Executive £47,200

Business Development Manager £79,900

Customer Service Manager £56,400

Customer Service Advisor £26,600

Retail Store Manager £36,800

Sales Assistant £26,300

Sales Manager £86,300

Sales Executive £47,100

Sales Administrator £33,000

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £58,600

Content Marketing Executive £54,800

Marketing Assistant £31,000

Head of Marketing £111,400

Marketing Manager £56,000

Marketing Executive £46,200

Events Director £80,900

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £84,900

Employee Relations Manager £61,800

HR Assistant £28,600

HR Director £122,300

HR Advisor £30,000

HR Manager £66,700

Learning & Development Manager £69,100

Recruiter £41,900

Talent Acquisition Manager £69,900

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£61,400
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£78,400
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£46,000
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

South West Top 10

Support Workers

Care Assistants

Warehouse Operatives

Health Care Assistants

Cleaners

Teaching Assistants

Administrators

Registered Nurses

Production Operatives

Customer Service Advisors

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £44,400

Finance Assistant £24,600

Accounts Payable Assistant £27,000

Credit Controller £25,900

Bookkeeper £26,000

Finance Director £116,800

Finance Business Partner £70,700

Financial Analyst £44,000

Payroll Administrator £35,400

Payroll Manager £52,900

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £28,400

Executive Assistant £37,800

Secretary £22,800

Legal Secretary £29,500

Office Manager £46,500

Office Administrator £25,000

Project Coordinator £46,900

Puchasing Administrator £22,800

Receptionist £23,500

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £49,800

Maintenance Engineer £52,400

Commissioning Engineer £42,500

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £34,000

Manufacturing Manager £55,900

Materials Handler £21,900

Mechanical Engineer £40,500

Manufacturing Technician £22,800

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £37,400

Senior Buyer £46,700

Inventory Control Manager £41,100

Logistics Coordinator £33,500

Logistics Manager £65,000

Supply Chain Director £103,500

Supply Chain Manager £63,100

Transportation Manager £40,800

Van/Delivery Driver £25,600

Warehouse Manager £40,300

Warehouse Operative £21,500

Challenges in the South West’s labour market have not affected all occupations equally. While overall employment rose between February 2020 and December 2022, this rise was spurred on by higher paid, skilled roles, while many lower paid, lower skilled occupations saw falls during that time.

Recent reports show an upturn in demand for medical staff, drivers, social workers and financial controllers in the region and hospitality roles also remain high. The greatest reductions were seen in elementary sales occupations and cleaning jobs.

Self-employment is an important aspect across the region which has seen a decrease since 2020 and has yet to recover to pre-pandemic numbers.

The South West has historically seen lower wages than the national average and this remains the case, however we have seen some recovery based on early job postings in 2023.

Looking ahead, the South West’s ageing population is a noticeable concern for the future of the region’s labour market.

Kim Gordon – Regional Manager

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £61,800

Business Development Executive £44,000

Business Development Manager £75,500

Customer Service Manager £52,600

Customer Service Advisor £24,800

Retail Store Manager £34,300

Sales Assistant £24,500

Sales Manager £81,600

Sales Executive £43,900

Sales Administrator £30,800

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £54,600

Content Marketing Executive £51,100

Marketing Assistant £32,100

Head of Marketing £107,400

Marketing Manager £68,100

Marketing Executive £43,100

Events Director £75,400

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £79,600

Employee Relations Manager £57,800

HR Assistant £26,600

HR Director £118,000

HR Advisor £39,000

HR Manager £62,500

Learning & Development Manager £64,400

Recruiter £39,100

Talent Acquisition Manager £65,400

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£57,200
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£74,000
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£43,000
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

Wales Top 10

Support Workers

Teaching Assistants

Care Assistants

Cleaners

Warehouse Operatives

Registered Nurses

Production Operatives

Health Care Assistants

Staff Nurses

Administrators

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £43,500

Finance Assistant £24,100

Accounts Payable Assistant £26,400

Credit Controller £25,400

Bookkeeper £25,500

Finance Director £115,600

Finance Business Partner £69,400

Financial Analyst £43,100

Payroll Administrator £34,600

Payroll Manager £51,900

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £27,800

Executive Assistant £37,000

Secretary £22,700

Legal Secretary £28,900

Office Manager £45,500

Office Administrator £24,500

Project Coordinator £46,000

Puchasing Administrator £22,500

Receptionist £23,100

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £48,800

Maintenance Engineer £51,400

Commissioning Engineer £41,600

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,900

Manufacturing Engineer £33,300

Manufacturing Manager £54,900

Materials Handler £21,800

Mechanical Engineer £39,700

Manufacturing Technician £22,300

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £36,600

Senior Buyer £45,800

Inventory Control Manager £40,200

Logistics Coordinator £32,800

Logistics Manager £63,700

Supply Chain Director £102,200

Supply Chain Manager £61,900

Transportation Manager £39,900

Van/Delivery Driver £25,100

Warehouse Manager £39,400

Warehouse Operative £21,400

Throughout 2023 we know that candidates will continue to have a high number of permanent opportunities available across all industries and sectors as unemployment in South Wales remains low. Good candidates know their value, and with the cost of living remaining high in the first half of the year, job seekers are requesting salaries above the market rate. We also continue to see candidates widening their priorities to focus on their work-life balance.

Alison Hogg –Operations Manager

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £60,500

Business Development Executive £43,100

Business Development Manager £74,300

Customer Service Manager £51,500

Customer Service Advisor £24,300

Retail Store Manager £33,500

Sales Assistant £24,000

Sales Manager £80,200

Sales Executive £43,000

Sales Administrator £30,100

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £53,500

Content Marketing Executive £50,100

Marketing Assistant £31,900

Head of Marketing £106,300

Marketing Manager £66,800

Marketing Executive £42,200

Events Director £73,900

Human Resources

Job Title	Median Salary
Compensation and Benefits Manager	£78,100
Employee Relations Manager	£56,600
HR Assistant	£26,100
HR Director	£116,800
HR Advisor	£38,200
HR Manager	£61,400
Learning & Development Manager	£63,100
Recruiter	£38,300
Talent Acquisition Manager	£64,100

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£56,000
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£72,800
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£42,100
IT support Engineer	£32,500
Software Developer	£55,000

Scotland Top 10

Support Workers

Post Closing Specialists

Care Assistants

Cleaners

Primary School Teachers

Registered Nurses

Apprentices

Customer Service Advisors

Staff Nurses

Warehouse Operatives

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £39,300

Finance Assistant £22,000

Accounts Payable Asstant £23,900

Credit Controller £23,000

Bookkeeper £23,100

Finance Director £110,200

Finance Business Partner £63,400

Financial Analyst £38,900

Payroll Administrator £31,300

Payroll Manager £47,200

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £25,200

Executive Assistant £33,500

Secretary £22,500

Legal Secretary £26,100

Office Manager £41,100

Office Administrator £22,700

Project Coordinator £41,800

Puchasing Administrator £22,000

Receptionist £21,900

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £44,400

Maintenance Engineer £46,700

Commissioning Engineer £37,600

Assembly/Machine Operative £20,800

Manufacturing Engineer £30,100

Manufacturing Manager £50,800

Materials Handler £21,600

Mechanical Engineer £35,900

Manufacturing Technician £20,600

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £33,100

Senior Buyer £41,400

Inventory Control Manager £36,400

Logistics Coordinator £29,700

Logistics Manager £58,300

Supply Chain Director £96,500

Supply Chain Manager £56,600

Transportation Manager £36,100

Van/Delivery Driver £23,200

Warehouse Manager £35,700

Warehouse Operative £21,200

Scotland’s Production & Manufacturing sector continues to remain stable, with high-volume food and beverage producers appearing to grow in part due to demand for their product but additionally because of their reticence to increase pay rates and look after the bottom line profit.

Echoing our 2022 Winter report - with fewer candidates in the market and a distinct decline in Eastern European workers, employers are more than ever focussing on employee attitude. Challenging times continue as employers try and strike a balance between employee expectations in a role and particularly when hiring - versus attitude and a willingness to employ candidates outside of their direct sector, with employers continuing to look for the ‘unicorn’ within the market but not willing to flex on role expectations.

Temporary roles have declined. With greater numbers of permanent opportunities - this seems to be helping those looking for white-collar professionals - but within the blue-collar world - there is more of a tendency to spread the existing workforce more thinly as employers’ budgeted costs don’t appear to allow for additional headcount at these levels.

High street retail continues to decline with shops closing as they struggle to keep up with rising rental costs from local authorities, bring in increased footfall and battle the rising costs of electricity. With online retailers paving the way on comparatively low operating costs.

The growth of the renewable energy sector continues in Scotland with more innovation and industrial areas set up specifically to harbour employers within the sector, encouraging the collaboration of minds and business leaders.

Kim MacDonald – Regional Manager

The optimism of our engineering clients entering into 2023 was buoyed by the fact that employment in the sector almost reached pre-pandemic levels. This was solidified with higher than average GDP growth than in the UK as a whole (only outperformed by London and the South East). However, the optimism has been tempered by the higher inflation in the UK and continued market uncertainty, which is likely to hinder business investment in the Engineering sector in 2023. Despite that, the contraction should be relatively mild, and any decline is expected to be in line with the national average.

Although we expect a decline in Oil & Gas projects in the North Sea, major engineering projects will continue in 2023 and renewable energy projects such as wind and carbon capture are expected to increase. The overall picture is that 2023 will be steady but with no expansion in the Engineering sector and no expectation of further growth till 2024.

Martin Bird Senior Manager – Engineering

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £54,700

Business Development Executive £39,000

Business Development Manager £68,700

Customer Service Manager £46,500

Customer Service Advisor £22,500

Retail Store Manager £30,300

Sales Assistant £22,000

Sales Manager £74,200

Sales Executive £38,900

Sales Administrator £27,300

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £48,400

Content Marketing Executive £45,300

Marketing Assistant £30,700

Head of Marketing £101,400

Marketing Manager £61,100

Marketing Executive £38,100

Events Director £66,800

Human Resources

Job Title	Median Salary
Compensation and Benefits Manager	£71,400
Employee Relations Manager	£51,500
HR Assistant	£23,700
HR Director	£111,400
HRAdvisor	£34,600
HR Manager	£56,100
Learning & Development Manager	£57,000
Recruiter	£34,600
Talent Acquisition Manager	£58,300

IT

Job Title Median Salary

IT Business Analyst £50,000

Infrastructure Engineer £50,600

Service Desk Analyst £27,000

Information Security Manager £65,000

IT Manager £67,300

IT Project Manager £57,500

Network Engineer £38,300

IT support Engineer £32,500

Software Developer £55,000

Northern Ireland Top 10

Support Workers

Care Assistants

Warehouse Operatives

Administrators

Cleaners

Sales Assistants

Customer Service Advisors

Production Operatives

Clerical Officers

Health Care Assistants

Accountancy and Finance

Job Title Median Salary

Management Accountant £43,500

Finance Assistant £27,200

Accounts Payable Assistant £26,400

Credit Controller £25,400

Bookkeeper £29,100

Finance Director £115,600

Finance Business Partner £69,400

Financial Analyst £43,100

Payroll Administrator £34,700

Payroll Manager £51,900

Administrative and Business Support

Job Title Median Salary

Personal Assistant £27,800

Executive Assistant £37,000

Secretary £27,100

Legal Secretary £28,900

Office Manager £45,500

Office Administrator £24,500

Project Coordinator £46,000

Puchasing Administrator £22,500

Receptionist £23,100

Manufacturing and Industrial

Job Title Median Salary

Electrical Engineer £48,800

Maintenance Engineer £51,400

Commissioning Engineer £41,600

Assembly/Machine Operative £22,000

Manufacturing Engineer £33,300

Manufacturing Manager £54,900

Materials Handler £21,800

Mechanical Engineer £39,700

Manufacturing Technician £22,300

Supply Chain and Logistics

Job Title Median Salary

_Supply Chain Planner £36,600

Senior Buyer £45,800

Inventory Control Manager £40,200

Logistics Coordinator £32,800

Logistics Manager £63,700

Supply Chain Director £102,200

Supply Chain Manager £61,900

Transportation Manager £39,900

Van/Delivery Driver £25,100

Warehouse Manager £39,400

Warehouse Operative £22,400

Confidence among business leaders in Northern Ireland remains steady, despite economic pressures. The employment market has proven to be stable, with the number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE increasing 2.6% over the year to reach the highest number on record.

Across industries optimism remains for the quarter ahead, with ONS business survey data showing that Northern Ireland is one of only two regions where a larger proportion of businesses surveyed are expecting demand to increase in November than the proportion that expect it to decrease. The manufacturing industry is especially confident due to export order projections for the next three to six months.

Northern Ireland continues to see skill shortages across key sectors including Life Sciences, Energy, Technology, Logistics and Manufacturing. To keep pace with hiring plans which remain above previous projections, the importance of a strong Employee Value Proposition (EVP) is increasing for businesses across the region. Higher importance is being placed on key incentives including flexible working opportunities, training and development plans, a competitive salary package, and employee wellbeing support to attract in-demand candidates.

Stephen Flanagan – Executive Director

Sales and Customer Service

Job Title Median Salary

Senior Account Manager £60,500

Business Development Executive £43,100

Business Development Manager £74,300

Customer Service Manager £51,500

Customer Service Advisor £24,300

Retail Store Manager £33,500

Sales Assistant £24,000

Sales Manager £60,100

Sales Executive £43,000

Sales Administrator £30,100

Marketing

Job Title Median Salary

Advertising Manager £53,500

Content Marketing Executive £50,100

Marketing Assistant £31,900

Head of Marketing £106,300

Marketing Manager £66,800

Marketing Executive £42,200

Events Director £73,900

Human Resources

Job Title Median Salary

Compensation and Benefits Manager £78,100

Employee Relations Manager £56,600

HR Assistont £26,100

HR Director £116,800

HRAdvisor £38,200

HR Manager £61,400

Learning& Development Manager £63,100

Recruiter £32,100

Talent Acquisition Manager £55,100

IT

Job Title	Median Salary
IT Business Analyst	£50,000
Infrastructure Engineer	£56,000
Service Desk Analyst	£27,000
Information Security Manager	£65,000
ITManager	£72,800
IT Project Manager	£57,500
Network Engineer	£42,100
IT support Engineer	£31,200
Software Developer	£55,000

Whilst 2023 looks set to be a challenging year for businesses amidst ongoing economic and political uncertainty, the labour market for now remains resilient. Demand for talent is high across all sectors, even with some signs of slowdown as the year progresses. Stability from cooling inflation will certainly support organisations and individuals as we move into 2024, and any job losses this year should be regained by 2025.

Employers are continuing to balance productivity gains with employee needs and this trend is set to continue as workers become more vocal about their needs, from flexible working practices to enhanced benefits. The ongoing staff and skills shortage is a high priority for most business leaders, a sentiment echoed by Government as they look to establish growth plans for the UK economy. Attracting economically’ inactive people back into the workplace, investing in skills programmes and levelling up regional economies are all critical levers of productivity.

However, the UK has not been immune to global economic headwinds of recent years; the financial crisis, the pandemic and now the energy crisis have all impacted UK business. Further homegrown challenges from Brexit, long-term illness and the skills crisis have hampered the availability of workers, offset against near record levels of unemployment.

It is no wonder that increasing the availability of workers and upskilling for the future are front of mind for Government and industry. This is reflected in the Government’s newly announced four pillars for economic growth and prosperity: Enterprise, Education, Employment and Everywhere. How these will translate from theory into practice is expected to be set out in more detail during the Spring Budget, however, we expect that any reform will take time before it is felt in the labour market.

For now, investing in great workforce management and hiring strategies remains a key differentiator for top employers. From robust attraction strategies to making your employees feel valued, all elements of the hiring and retention lifecycle need to be optimised, particularly in a labour market where the ratio of unemployed people to vacancies is at an all time low of 1:1. Whilst this may ease somewhat throughout the year, no sector is immune from the staffing shortages seen across the UK today.

We hope that the analysis and data provided within this report will help to inform your workforce strategy and hiring plans for 2023. Adecco will continue to provide advice and insights to our clients as the year progresses. If you would like to discuss any of the information provided within this publication, please don’t hesitate to get in touch:

Email: LMO@adecco.co.uk

Website: www.adecco.co.uk

Adecco

Adecco is the world’s leading workforce solutions company, offering flexible placement, permanent placement, outsourcing, and managed services across all sectors. Established for more than 65 years, we offer the largest footprint of nearly 100 offices across the UK.

We deliver the right talent capabilities at the right time, enabling flexibility and agility for clients. Our global scale, local knowledge, and ‘always-on’ approach match the best candidates across a wide range of office, industrial, and service sector roles. As a career partner, we support the employability of our Associates and are committed to their success.

Within the UK, we work with over 1 million candidates who can be drawn on to support our delivery. These individuals are placed into talent pools based on skillsets and geographical area, allowing our delivery team easy access to suitable skills. This approach sees us deliver over 400,000 annual assignments to more than 11,000 businesses.

adecco.co.uk

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This document has been printed on paper that has been responsibly and sustainably sourced, and is certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), an international non-governmental organisation dedicated to promoting responsible management of the world’s forests.

OXFORD ECONOMICS

Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts, and analytical tools on more than 200 countries, 100 industries, and 7,000 cities and regions. Our best-in-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social, and business impact.

Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in New York, London, Frankfurt, and Singapore, Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Melbourne, Mexico City, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Sydney, Tokyo, and Toronto. We employ 450 staff, including more than 300 professional economists, industry experts, and business editors—one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our global team is highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities, from econometric modelling, scenario framing, and economic impact analysis to market surveys, case studies, expert panels, and web analytics.

Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers, and thought leaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over 2,000 international organisations, including leading multinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and trade associations; and top universities, consultancies, and think tanks.

oxfordeconomics.com

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Contents

Spring Edition

Introduction

Adecco

OXFORD ECONOMICS

UK Labour Market Overview

The economy faces many challenges in 2023 after last year’s slowdown

The workforce has shrunk as older people have left the workforce and may never return

2023 is expected to see a shallow recession led by consumers and some job losses are inevitable

The labour market will remain tight in 2023 despite a modest rise in unemployment

In 2024 and beyond, knowledge-based services will be among the largest recruiters

Underlying changes to the structure of the UK labour market

We expect that by the end of 2023, economic activity will return to growth and whilst we do not expect a particularly strong bounce-back, this will filter through to the labour market.

Future of Work

The Impact of Megatrends

Economic and political volatility

Talent scarcity

Workforce of the future

Digital transformation

Purpose-led

Conclusion

Sources:

Sector Performance & Outlook

The following pages include a regional outlook for each of the 12 regions and nations of the UK. We have provided analysis on expected sector performance in each region, in addition to the impact of macroeconomic forces on labour market trends and employment.

Employment growth gained momentum in 2022

Job shedding across all sectors in 2023

Long-term outlook: weak demographic outlook but growth potential in some sectors

2022: employment grew but a long way to recovery

Health will be the only sector to avoid job losses this year

Long-term outlook: demographics likely to hold the region back

Favourable growth in 2022, despite recent signs of slowdown

A moderate contraction in 2023

Long-term outlook: slower growth but business services expected to develop

Employment growth eased in second half of 2022

2023: decline will offset some of the gains made last year

Long-term outlook: muted employment growth prospects but opportunities exist

Modest employment growth in 2022, with job losses in retail

Unemployment rate to remain the highest in the UK

Long-term outlook: demographic outlook weighs on employment growth

Jobs growth in the East of England last year kept pace with the UK

Employment is expected to fall in 2023, particularly in consumer-led activities and in administrative services

Long-term outlook: growing employment in knowledge-based industries

A buoyant labour market despite signs of slowdown

London’s jobs market less exposed to losses this year

Long-term outlook: London leading the way, at a slow pace

Employment grew more slowly than elsewhere in 2022

Employment is expected to fall in almost every sector in 2023

Long-term outlook: growing demand to fill high-skilled roles will attract workers from elsewhere

Employment continued to grow in 2022 and has remained resilient so far

South West’s labour market to be resilient in 2023

Long-term outlook: fast growth despite demographic risks

Faster growth in 2022 than the year previous, yet slower than the UK average

A mild employment fall in 2023

Long-term outlook: slower growth and new opportunities

Employment finally recovered strongly in 2022

A limited fall in employment expected this year

Long-term outlook: a complex demographic challenge ahead

Growth was strong in 2022, despite economic turmoil

Sharp fall in employment expected in 2023

Long-term outlook: sectoral restructuring and demographic slowdown create important challenges

S a lar sis

Accountancy and Finance

IT

Supply Chain and Logistics

Human Resources

Administrative and Business Support

Manufacturing and Industrial

Sales and Customer Service

Marketing

Accountancy and Finance

Administrative and Business Support

Manufacturing and Industrial

Supply Chain and Logistics

Sales and Customer Service

Marketing

Human Resources

IT

牛津经济研究院-Adecco劳动力市场展望（英）-2023.3-39页