电新2023年策略新起点，新征程，新能源产业链大有可为

2023 Strategy of Power Equipment & Renewable Energy Industry: New Departure & New Journey, Renewable Energy Industry Chain Shows Great Potential

Bin Yang, bin.yang@htisec.com

2022年12月21日

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2023年我们认为核心关注三大方向：

（1）风光运营商及风电整机制造商

 观点1：政策红利持续加码，风光装机维持高速增长逻辑不变，22-25年新增装机CAGR分别为7%和17.1%。

 观点2：风机中标价格下行趋势不变，部分海风资源条件好的省份海风IRR超过13%，集中式光伏EPC价格下探到3.48元/w,光伏项目IRR显著提升，建议关注风电运营商龙头龙源电力；新能源装机占比不断上升的华润电力。

 观点3： “十四五”海风规划装机超80GW，海风将会是风光细分版块确定性最高的赛道。

 观点4：看好中国风电整机制造商海外布局，全球渗透率不断提升，建议关注风电整机龙头金风科技。

（2）硅料

 观点1：棒状硅供需从紧平衡到宽松，头部制造商通过长单锁量，利润有保障，建议关注新特能源。

 观点2：颗粒硅23年有望出现结构性短缺9.6万吨，建议关注协鑫科技。

（3）大储及抽水蓄能

 观点1：风电光伏装机占比不断提升催生配储需求。

 观点2：24个省份推出强制配储政策，辅助服务市场和现货市场开放改善储能盈利状况，新型储能渗透率将不断提升。

 观点3：保守估计25年抽水蓄能累计装机有望达65GW，22-25年CAGR为15.7%。

风险： 1、政策不及预期；2、原材料价格提高导致成本升高和利润下降；3、需求不及预期；4、降价竞争导致利润走低

For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

• 风光运营和风电整机：投资成本不断下降，大型化改善风机毛利率

• 硅料：棒状硅供应进入宽松装态，颗粒硅结构性短缺

• 储能：新型储能及抽水蓄能装机有望同步高增

风电运营：

政策红利持续加码，风光装机维持高速增长逻辑不变

产业链价格下行趋势不变，运营环节内部收益率将不断改善

海风将会是风光细分版块确定性最高的赛道

整机制造商：

中国风机企业全球市占率不断提升

23年中标价格下降幅度有望收窄

大型化修复基本面，23年毛利率边际有望改善

For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

 2022年至今，我国发布一系列政策，积极推动新能源发展，政策不断加吗，行业红利期延续。

表1：国家新能源相关政策

时间	部门	政策名称	主要内容
2022/1/28	国家发改委、国家能源局	意见》	《关于加快建设全国统一电力市场体系的指导到2025年，全国统一电力市场体系初步建成；到2030年，全国统一电力市场体系基本建成，适应新型电力系统要求，新能源全面参与市场交易
2022/2/10	国家发改委、能源局	《关于完善能源绿色低碳转型体制机制和政策措施的意见》	推动构建以清洁低碳能源为主体的能源供应体系，以沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地区为重点，加快推进大型风电、光伏发电基地建设，支持新能源电力能建尽建、能并尽并、
2022/3/17	国家能源局	《2022年能源工作指导意见》	2022年，非化石能源占能源消费总量比重提高到17.3%左右，风电、光伏发电发电量占全社会用电量的比重达到12.2% 左右。
2022/3/22	国家发改委、能源局	《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》	提出加快发展风电、太阳能发电，建设9大清洁能源基地，提升中东部分散式风电和东南沿海地区海上风电供应能力，新建外送通道中可再生能源占比50%以上。
2022/4/7	国家发改委、国家能源局	《北部湾城市群建设“十四五”实施方案》	提出加快构建多元化低碳清洁能源体系，建设北部湾海上风电基地，因地制宜发展分布式光伏和分散式风电。
2022/5/30	国家发改委、国家能源局	《关于促进新时代新能源高质量发展的实施方案》	要实现到2030年风电、太阳能发电总装机容量达到12亿千瓦以上的目标;加快推进以沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地区为重点的大型风电光伏基地建设;引导全社会消费新能源等绿色电力。
2022/6/1	国家发改委、国家能源局等四部委	《“十四五”可再生能源发展规划》	提出“十四五”可再生能源发展主要目标;同时提出，大力推进风电和光伏发电基地化开发，积极推进风电和光伏发电分布式开发，统筹推进水风光综合基地一体化开发，稳步推进生物质能多元化开发等；并提出促进存储消纳，高比例利用可再生能源。
2022/8/1	工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、生态环境部	《工业领域碳达峰实施方案》	要深入推进节能降碳，鼓励企业、园区就近利用清洁能源。增强源网荷储协调互动，推进多能高效互补利用，促进就近大规模高比例消纳可再生能源。
2022/8/19	国家发展改革委、国家统计局、生态环境部	《关于加快建立统一规范的碳排放统计核算体系实施方案》	建立全国及地方碳排放统计核算制度，完善行业企业碳排放核算机制，建立健全重点产品碳排放核算方法，完善国家温室气体清单编制机制。到2023年，统一规范的碳排放统计核算体系初步建成，到2025年，统一规范的碳排放统计核算体系进一步完善。
2022/8/29	工业和信息化部、财政部、商务部、国务院	《加快电力装备绿色低碳创新发展行动计划》	重点围绕火电、水电、核电、风电、太阳能、氢能、储能、输电装备、配电、用电等内新甘河广吉广江海山河黑辽山云青四湖湖贵浙宁福重安江上天北电力装备10个领域提出提出六项行动。通过5-8年时间，电力装备供给结构显著改善，保障电蒙疆肃北东林西苏南西南龙宁东南海川南北州江夏建庆徽西海津京网输配效率明显提升，基本满足适应非
2022/9/6	财政部	《中央财政关于推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的财税支持方案》	化石能源高比例、大规模接入的新型电力系统建设需要。支持在黄河上游沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地区继续推进大型风电光伏基地建设，支持沿黄河省区稳定能源保供、有序调整能源结构。
2022/11/7	国家发展改革委	《关于进一步完善政策环境加大力度支持民间投资发展的意见》	鼓励民营企业加大太阳能发电、风电、生物质发电、储能等节能降碳领域投资力度。
2022/11/16	国家发展改革委、国家统计局、国家能源局	《关于进一步做好新增可再生能源消费不纳入能源消费总量控制有关工作的通知》	提出准确界定新增可再生能源电力消费量范围的要求，明确现阶段不纳入能源消费总量的可再生能源包括风电、太阳能发电、水电、生物质发电、地热能发电等。
资料来源：政府网站，HTI

For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

2022年11月份，光伏单月投资426亿元，同比去年增速196%， 1-11月光伏累计投资2000亿元，1-11月累计投资超去年增长
290%， 2022年1-11月单月份新增投资规模远超去年同期水平。作为光伏装机前置指标，十四五中后期有望集中放量。

图1：光伏单月新增投资额（单位：亿元）

资料来源：国家能源局,HTI

图2：光伏累计投资额（单位：亿元）

资料来源：国家能源局,HTI

 2022年11月份，风电单月投资额为306亿元，同比下降9%，较10月26%的降幅收窄17%。

2022年1-11月风电累计投资额1511亿元，降幅收窄至23.8%。2021年，中国海风国家补贴全面取消，陆上风电及光伏全部进入平价上网，2022年风电投资增速在2021年高基数下降幅不断收窄，到11月份降幅收窄至23.8%，增速不断修复。

图3：风电单月新增投资额（单位：亿元）

资料来源：国家能源局,HTI

图4：风电累计投资额（单位：亿元）

资料来源：国家能源局,HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

 根据不完全统计，1-11月份风电累计中标规模达90GW，环比增长9.4%，单月新增7.7GW， 1-10月风电招标同比增加123%。

光伏EPC招标超100GW，截至11月超过110GW光伏EPC项目启动招标，80GW左右光伏EPC项目公布中标结果（去年同期仅为10GW），其中地面电站约56GW，分布式光伏及整县分布式均超10GW，招标主体为国企央企，其中国家能源集团招标EPC招标规模最大，达15.8GW左右，今年前三季度华润电力定标容量11.2GW，今年定标容量超21年1.5倍。

图5：风电招标量

资料来源：HTI整理

图6：光伏招标量

资料来源：HTI整理
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

根据国网和南网披露数据，“十四五”期间国网南网合计投资超过3万亿元，同比十三五期间增长10.5%，其中国网计划投资3500亿美元，主要投向特高压输电线路建设，促进三北地区新能源消纳。

南方电网计划投资6700亿元，主要投向数字化和现代化电网建设，如提升输电智能化水平，推进输电线路智能巡视和智能变电站建设等等。

图7：国家电网投资额

资料来源：国家电网，HTI

图8：南方电网投资额

资料来源：南方电网，HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

2022年初以来，海上风机（含塔筒）中标均价中枢不断下移，从年初的4477元/kw下降到8月30日的3306元/kw，不到一年降幅超26%，11月份海上风电中标均价回升到3800元/千瓦。

1-11月份陆上风机含塔筒中标均价在2200元/kw左右波动，不含塔筒均价从8月底1664元/kw反弹到10月份2035元/kw，11月份均价有下滑到1849元/kw，总体而言，近年来陆上、海上风机价格中枢不断走低，带动风电场投资回报率提升。

图9：陆上风机平均中标价格

资料来源：HTI整理

图10：海上风机平均中标价格

资料来源：HTI整理
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

根据PVinfoLink数据，12月15日182mm单玻和双玻组件价格下降1.5%，210mm单玻和双玻组件也下降1.5%，虽然降幅大小硅片和电池片环节，降幅时间点最晚，但是拐点已经到来，整个产业链进入价格下行通道中。

图11：组件价格拐点已经开始显现

资料来源：PvinfoLink, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

 集中式大EPC中标均价从9月份的高点4.4元/W下降到12月份的3.48元/W。

分布式大EPC项目中标均价从8月份的4.4元/W高点波动下降到12月份的4.01元/W，光伏产业链价格拐点已经到来，受风机投标价格下降和光伏组件价格下降的影响，龙源电力、华润电力等风光装机规模不断增长的运营商的初始投资成本有望进一步降低。

图12：集中式光伏EPC均价走势（元/瓦）

资料来源：光伏头条，HTI

图13：分布式光伏EPC均价走势（元/瓦）

资料来源：光伏头条，HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

海上风电在10000元/千瓦的初始投资成本和3500小时的利用小时数的假设条件下，对应的IRR为12.33%,具备比较好的经济性，广东海风部分区域的利用小时数能达到4000小时，对应的IRR超过13%，如果初始投资成本进一步下降，达到9000元/千瓦，3500小时对应的IRR为14.25%。

表2：海上风电敏感性分析

内部收益敏感性分析海上年利用小时数(h)（IRR）
投资成本(元/kW）		2300	2400	2500	2600	2700	2800	2900	3000	3100	3200	3300	3400	3500	3600	3700
	8500	8.23%	8.86%	9.48%	10.09%	10.70%	11.30%	11.89%	12.48%	13.06%	13.64%	14.22%	14.80%	15.37%	15.93%	16.50%
	9000	7.43%	8.03%	8.63%	9.21%	9.79%	10.36%	10.93	11.50%%	12.05%	12.61%	13.16%	13.70%	14.25%	14.79%	15.33%
	9500	6.71%	7.28%	7.85%	8.42%	8.97%	9.52%	10.07%	10.61%	11.14%1	11.67	%12.20	%12.72%	13.24%	13.76%	14.27%
	10000	6.05%	6.60%	7.15%	7.70%	8.23%	8.76%	9.28%	9.80%	10.32%	10.83%	11.33%	11.83%	12.33%	12.82%	13.32%
	10500	5.44%	5.98%	6.51%	7.04%	7.55%	8.06%	8.57%	9.07%	9.56%	10.05%	10.54%	11.02%	11.50%	11.97%	12.45%
	11000	4.88%	5.41%	5.92%	6.43%	6.93%	7.42%	7.91%	8.39%	8.87%	9.34%	9.81%	10.28%	10.74%	11.20%	11.65%
	11500	4.37%	4.88%	5.38%	5.87%	6.35%	6.83%	7.30%	7.77%	8.23%	8.69%	9.14%	9.59%	10.04%	10.48%	10.92%
	12000	3.89%	4.39%	4.87%	5.35%	5.82%	6.28%	6.74%	7.20%	7.64%	8.09%	8.53%	8.96%	9.39%	9.82%	10.25%
	12500	3.45%	3.93%	4.40%	4.87%	5.32%	5.78%	6.22%	6.66%	7.10%	7.53%	7.95%	8.37%	8.79%	9.21%	9.62%
	13000	3.04%	3.50%	3.96%	4.42%	4.86%	5.30%	5.73%	6.16%	6.59%	7.00%	7.42%	7.83%	8.24%	8.64%	9.04%
	13500	2.65%	3.10%	3.55%	3.99%	4.43%	4.86%	5.28%	5.70%	6.11%	6.52%	6.92%	7.32%	7.71%	8.11%	8.49%
	14000	2.28%	2.73%	3.17%	3.60%	4.02%	4.44%	4.85%	5.26%	5.66%	6.06%	6.45%	6.84%	7.23%	7.61%	7.99%
	14500 1.94%		2.37% 2.80% 3.22%			3.64%	4.05%	4.45%	4.85%	5.24%	5.63%	6.01%	6.39%	6.77% 7.14% 7.51%

资料来源：HTI测算
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

陆上风电项目初始投资成本当前下降到4000元/kw左右，在1800小数下对应的IRR为15.71%，并且随着风机价格不断下降的趋势下，风电项目的经济性将进一步提升。

表3：陆上风电敏感性分析

内部收益敏感性分析陆上年利用小时数(h)（IRR）
投资成本(元/kW)		1800	1900	2000	2100	2200	2300	2400	2500	2600	2700	2800	2900	3000	3100	3200
	2000	36.29%	38.66%	41.02%	43.38%	45.73%	48.08%	50.43%	52.78%	55.12%	57.46%	59.80%	62.13%	64.47%	66.80%	69.13%
	2500	28.02%	29.91%	31.80%	33.69%	35.57%	37.45%	39.33%	41.21%	43.08%	44.95	46.83%%	48.70%	50.57%	52.43%	54.30%
	3000	22.54%	24.13%	25.71%	27.28%	28.85%	30.42%	31.98%	33.54%	35.10%	36.66%	38.22	39.78%%	41.33%	42.89%	44.44%
	3500	18.64%	20.02%	21.38%	22.73%	24.08%	25.43%	26.77%	28.11%	29.44%	30.78	32.11%%	33.44%	34.77%	36.10%	37.43%
	4000	15.71%	16.92%	18.13%	19.32%	20.51%	21.69%	22.87%	24.04%	25.21%	26.38%	27.55%	28.71%	29.88%	31.04%	32.20%
		4500	13.41%	14.51%	15.59%	16.66%	17.73%	18.79%	19.84%	20.89%	21.93%	22.98%	24.02%	25.05%	26.09%	27.12%	28.15%
	元/kw)		5000	11.55%	12.55%	13.54%	14.52%	15.49%	16.46%	17.41%	18.36%	19.31%	20.25%	21.19%	22.13%	23.06%	23.99%	24.92%
	5500	10.01%	10.94%	11.85%	12.75%	13.65%	14.54%	15.41%	16.29%	17.15%	18.02%	18.88%	19.73%	20.58%	21.43%	22.28%
	6000	8.70%	9.57%	10.42%	11.27%	12.10%	12.92%	13.74%	14.55%	15.35%	16.15%	16.94%	17.73%	18.52%	19.30%	20.08%
	6500	7.58%	8.39%	9.20%	9.99%	10.77%	11.54%	12.31%	13.06%	13.81%	14.56%	15.30%	16.03%	16.76%	17.49%	18.21%
	7000	6.60%	7.37%	8.13%	8.88%	9.62%	10.35%	11.07%	11.78%	12.48%	13.18%	13.88%	14.56%	15.25%	15.93%	16.61%
	7500	5.73%	6.47%	7.19%	7.91%	8.61%	9.30%	9.98%	10.65%	11.32%	11.98%	12.63%	13.28%	13.93%	14.57%1	5.21%
	8000 4.96% 5.67%			6.36% 7.04%		7.71%	8.37%	9.01%	9.66%	10.29%	10.92%11.54%		12.15%	12.77%13.37%13.98%

资料来源：HTI测算

组件价格开始向下，价格将很快传导至EPC中标价，集中式光伏EPC中标价格已经下降至3.48元/W，以广东省光伏利用小时数1000小时左右测算，IRR为12.1%左右，从分析表中我们可以了解，当EPC价格下降到3.8元/W时，经济性开始变好。

表4：光伏内部收益率敏感性分析

初始投资成本（元/W）	利用小时数(h)
		950	1000	1050	1100	1150	1200	1250	1300	1350	1400	1450	1500	1550	1600
	3.2	12.83%	114.71%	16.61%	18.54%	20.50%	22.49%	24.50%	26.52%	28.56%	30.62%	32.68	34.76%%	36.84%	38.92%
	3.3	11.97%	13.77%	15.60%	17.46%	19.35%	21.26%	23.19%	25.14%	27.11%	29.10%	31.09%	33.09%	35.11%	37.12%
	3.4	11.16%	12.90%	14.66%	16.45%	18.27%	20.11%	21.97%	23.85%	25.75%	27.67%	29.60%	31.53%	33.48%	35.43%
	3.5	10.41%	12.09%	13.78%	15.51%	17.26%	19.03%	20.83%	22.64%	24.48%	26.33%	28.19%	30.07%	31.95%	33.84%
	3.6	9.70%	11.32%	12.96%	14.62%	16.31%	18.02%	19.76%	21.51%	23.28%	25.07%	26.87%	28.69%	30.52%	32.35%
	3.7	9.03%	10.60%	12.19%	13.79%	15.42%	17.08%	18.75%	20.45%	22.16%	23.89%	25.63%	27.39%	29.16%	30.94%
	3.8	8.41%	9.92%	11.46%	13.01%	14.59%	16.19%	17.80%	19.44%	21.10%	22.77%	24.46%	26.17%	27.88%	29.61%
	3.9	7.81%	9.29%	10.77%	12.28%	13.80%	15.35%	16.91%	18.50%	20.10%	21.72%	23.36%	25.01%	26.67%	28.35%
	4	7.25%	8.68%	10.13%	11.59%	13.06%	14.56%	16.07%	17.61%	19.16%	20.73%	22.32%	23.92%	25.53%	27.16%
	4.1	6.72%	8.11%	9.51%	10.93%	12.36%	13.81%	15.28%	16.77%	18.27%	19.79%	21.33%	22.89%	24.45%	26.03%
	4.2	6.21%	7.57%	8.93%	10.31%	11.70%	13.11%	14.53%	15.97%	17.43%	18.91%	20.40%	21.91%	23.43%	24.96%
	4.3	5.73%	7.05%	8.38%	9.72%	11.07%	12.44%	13.82%	15.22%	16.63%	18.07%	19.52%	20.98%	22.46%	23.94%
	4.4 5.27% 6.56%			7.85%	9.16%	10.47%	11.80%	13.15%14.50%		15.88%	17.27%18.68%		20.10%	21.53%	22.98%

资料来源：HTI测算

中国风电新增装机是全球新增装机最大贡献者。在亚洲市场中，中国2020年占比达93%，21年占比达82%。21年全球新增93.6GW新增装机中，亚太市场占比59%，欧洲占比19%，北美占比14%，排名第三。21年中国风电市场新增装机占全球新增装机超过50%，累计装机占比达41%，均排名全球第一。

图14：21年全球新增陆上风电装机占比New installations onshore (%)

资料来源：GWEC,HTI

图15：21年全球新增海上风电装机占比

资料来源：GWEC,HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

2018年全球前15风机制造商中，中国企业市占率合计占比36.5%。2021年，前15大风机制造商中，中国企业市占率合计占比上升到53.5%，中国风电整机制造商在全球的竞争力越来越强。

图16:2021全球前15风机厂商市占率

图17:2020全球前15风机厂商市占率

图18:2019全球前15风机厂商市占率

图19：21年全球新增陆上风电装机占比

资料来源：GWEA,HTI

图20：21年全球新增海上风电装机占比

资料来源：各省官方文件,HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

风机单机容量已经达到19MW，半直驱将引领海风电技术。各大风机厂商如中国海装、东方电气、金风科技、上海电气陆续推出大容量机组。半直驱风力发电机组成本较直驱更低，体积与重量相对较小，可靠性有保障，机械部分偏向双馈，电气部分偏向直驱，成为全球风电发展大势。

图21：21年全球新增陆上风电装机占比

资料来源：United States Department of Energy,HTI

图22：各类风电整机企业技术布局

资料来源：GWEA,HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

中国风电企业通过与产业链上下游协作的方式加速开拓海外市场，凭借国内完备产业链及市场需求带来的价格优势，在全球风电市场份额中不断提升。截至2021年底，中国风电海外装机已经分布于全球的45个国家。

图23：我国风电企业出海模式

资料来源：伍德麦肯兹,HTI

表5：2022年至今风电整机制造商海外订单情况

整机商	项目名称	项目容量	项目国家
金风科技	PFA和PAM项目	105.6	巴西
	乌兹别克斯坦Zarafshan 500Mw风电项目	500	乌兹别克斯坦
	Koruson-1项目群的风机供货与安装合同以及长期运维服务合同	436.8	南非
	中国电建华东院阿联茵风电示范项目风力发电机采购	103.5	阿联茵
	中国电建中南院越南茶荣东城一期80MW海上风电总承包项目风力发电机组与风机塔筒及附属设备采购	80	越南
远景能源	金风科技合计	1225.9
	印度风电市场	1966.8	印度
	印度198MW风机订单	198	印度
	为老挝境内的Monsoon 600MW风电项目提供风电机组	600	老挝
	中国电建江西院越南凯龙100MM海上风电项目	100	越南
	远景能源合计	2864.8
运达股份哈萨克斯坦3个项目		205	哈萨克斯坦
	运达股份合计	205
明阳智能	韩国风机制造厂商、风力发电企业Unison有限公司签署了战略协作协议		韩国
明阳智能合计共计		4295.7

资料来源：公司数据，HTI整理
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

今年前三季度，公司实现毛利率22.68%，仍然处于历史较低水平，主要原因系自去年起风机制造板块占比下滑、中速永磁产品单价偏低、而其他型号产品销量环比下降等，预计随着规模化生产销售，2023年毛利率将迎来拐点。

图24:公司收入/归母净利润规模及增速

资料来源：公司财报,HTI

图25: 2016-2022Q3公司总体毛利率

资料来源：公司财报，HTI

For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com全球风机行业发展迅速，行业集中度高，头部企业有望受益。中国风电整机制造商CR5由2016年60%，提升至2021年72%，CR10由2016年84%提升至2021年94%。2021年金风科技风力发电机组吊装容量市占率为11.8%，位列全球第二，国内市占率为20.4%，排名第一，22年1-11月份中标规模超15GW，排名第三，维持头部地位，行业集中度的提升将带来行业优势资源的集中，公司有望从行业发展中受益。

图26:2021年公司国内市占率位列第一

资料来源：Woodmackenzie, HTI

图27: 2022年1-11月公司中标规模

资料来源：每日风电, HTI

For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com公司2006年开始储备半直驱技术，于2021年首度推出商业化的中速永磁风机产品，产品放量迅速，发展前景良好。公司中速永磁风机今年1-9月实现销售容量2986.06MW。今年Q1/Q2/Q3分别实现销售容量152MW/549.5MW/2284.51MW，Q2环比增加261.5%，Q3环比增加315.7%。预计今年年底公司中速永磁风机销售容量超过5270MW。

风机销售不及预期；风电产品原材料价格提高导致成本升高和利润下降。

图28: 2021和2022前三季度公司各型号产品销售容量(MW)

资料来源：公司财报, HTI

图29:半直驱机组内部结构图

资料来源：华创风电, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

金风科技2022年海外订单共3057MW，同比增长63%，订单覆盖“一带一路”主要国家，包括越南、智利、乌兹别克斯坦等，其中签订的乌兹别克斯坦 Zarafshan500MW风电项目，是乌兹别克斯坦乃至中亚最大单体项目；截2022年三季度末，公司海外权益装机容量达1034MW，项目主要集中在澳大利亚。

图30: 公司海外机组订单

资料来源：公司官网, HTI

For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

华润电力2022前三季度营业收入439.25亿元，同比+22.1%；归母净利润为-4.89亿元，去年同期为-846.7万元，主要原因系煤价维持高位运行导致煤电亏损。2022年前11月附属电厂累计售电量1.66亿MWh，同比+3.9%，其中，附属火电厂累计售电量13143.86万MWh，同比+2.3%，附属风电场累计售电量3171.86万MWh ，同比+10.5%；附属光伏电站累计售电量124.39万MWh ，同比+18.2%，看好公司可再生能源板块。

图31: 公司分部营业收入(百万港元)

资料来源：公司财报, HTI

图32: 2017-2022Q3公司毛利率和净利率

资料来源：公司财报, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

2022年上半年，公司风电、光伏运营表现在行业属于第一梯队。2022年上半年，公司风电利用小时数同比下降69小时至1250小时，仍比全国行业平均水平高出96小时，风电售电量同比提升12.8%达到182亿千瓦时；公司光伏平均利用小时数同比提升5.7%至812小时，高于全国全行业平均水平122小时，光伏售电量同比提升27.5%达到6.845亿千瓦时。

 风险提示：可再生能源装机不及预期；燃料成本上涨超预期。

图33:2020-2022 年公司光伏发电业务平均利用小时

资料来源：公司财报, HTI

图34: 2019-2022 年公司光伏发电业务售电量

资料来源：公司财报, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

2022Q3归母净利润大幅增长93.06%，业绩加速修复。2018-2021年公司营收CAGR为12.1%，其中风电业务营收占比超60%，截至2022Q3公司主营收入302.16亿元，同比+9.76%；归母净利润53.53亿元，同比-7.25%，其中Q3主营收入85.43亿元，同比+5.15%，利用小时数同比提升60小时，风电平均上网电价在市场电交易价格稳步提升及不同电价区域结构性因素影响下呈上升态势，我们认为公司整体业绩将加速修复。

图35: 2017-2021公司净利润及增速

资料来源：公司财报, HTI

图36: 2017-2022H1公司销售毛利率、净利率和ROE

资料来源：公司财报, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

公司资源储备丰富，2021年新增项目储备规模合计达56.46GW。2021年，本集团新增资源储备56.46GW，较2020年同期增长9.44%，其中风电11.76GW，光伏36.70GW，多能互补项目8.00GW，均位于资源较好地区。2022年H1，通过竞配等方式，争取开发指标容量3,976.5MW（其中风电2,646.5MW、光伏1,330.0MW），分布式光伏备案1,730.0MW，累计取得开发指标5,706.5MW，公司项目储备丰富，为未来装机高速增长提供基础。

 风险提示：原材料如组件、风机价格上涨带来装机不及预期；新能源补贴不及预期，影响运营商资本支出。

图37: 2017-2022H1公司累计装机容量

资料来源：公司官网, HTI

图38:2021年公司项目资源储备情况

资料来源：公司官网, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

棒状硅料：

硅料厂家持续扩产，硅料供应从2022年紧平衡进入2023年宽松状态。

棒状硅料价格开始下跌，拐点已经来到

颗粒硅料：

颗粒硅呈现供应性短缺

硅料龙头签署多晶硅长单，以量补价

硅料供求关系已经发生变化，从22年紧平衡进入23年宽松状态。随着今年国内各大硅料厂家大幅扩充产能，2022年底全球硅料产能预计约130万吨，第四季度开始硅料产能释放加速，2023年预计新增产能超过140万吨，全年硅料产量预计超200万吨，乐观情况下，按照全球新增装机355GW测算，硅料供应过剩超过100万吨，硅料供应相对终端需求已经从紧平衡到宽松状态，并将供大于求，硅料价格开始下调。

表6:硅料供需预测

装机乐观情况	22Q1	22Q2	22Q3	22Q4E	2022	23Q1E	23Q2E	23Q3E	23Q4E	2023E	2024E
装机量预计（GW）	43.15	57.72	70.95	122.17	294.00	52.11	69.70	85.67	147.52	355.00	360.00
容配比	1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20
硅片需求（GW）	51.78	69.27	85.14	146.61	352.80	62.53	83.64	102.81	177.03	426.00	432.00
单位硅耗（g/w）	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.55	2.55	2.55	2.55	2.55	2.55
硅料需求（万吨）	13.46	18.01	22.14	38.12	91.73	15.94	21.33	26.22	45.14	108.63	110.16
供给能力（万吨）	21.40	23.57	24.98	33.50	103.44	37.80	46.12	58.21	68.89	211.03	259.80
供给-需求（GW）	7.93	5.56	2.84	-4.62	11.71	21.86	24.80	32.00	23.75	102.40	149.64
供需比	1.59	1.31	1.13	0.88	0.89	0.42	0.46	0.45	0.66	0.51	0.42

资料来源：公司公告，HTI

12月长单签订情况，多数厂家硅料价格明显下调，预计12月多晶硅供应仍将持续增加，目前多晶硅已出现一定库存，但价格回落，会进一步促进终端装机，预计多晶硅产量继续保持增长，而价格持续回落。我们预计到2023年中期左右会有一个比较明显的拐点，从现在到2023年中期价格可能会存在一些松动。

图39:多晶硅料价格趋势

资料来源：PVInfoLink, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

颗粒硅呈现结构性供应短缺，2023年颗粒硅供应缺口预计达9.6万吨。据我们测算，23年硅料供需将呈现结构性矛盾，其中棒状硅料产能过剩，而颗粒硅呈现供不应求的格局。23颗粒硅缺口有望达9.6万吨，23年由于陕西天宏8万吨产能陆续投产，缺口有望缩小至7.7万吨。

表7：硅料供需预测

颗粒硅供需情况（装机乐观情况下）	22Q1	22Q2	22Q3	22Q4E	2022E	23Q1E	23Q2E	23Q3E	23Q4E	2023E	2024E
协鑫颗粒硅投产产能（万吨）	3.00	3.00	6.00	12.00	12.00	18.00	20.00	22.00	26.00	26.00	36.00
陕西天宏产能（万吨）	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	8.00
产能合计	4.80	4.80	7.80	13.80	13.80	19.80	21.80	23.80	27.80	27.80	44.00
颗粒硅产量（万吨）	0.90	0.90	1.46	2.58	5.83	3.70	4.08	4.45	5.20	17.43	27.60
硅料需求量（万吨）	13.46	18.01	22.14	38.12	91.73	15.94	21.33	26.22	45.14	108.63	110.16
P硅片产量占比	96%	94%	92%	90%	1	85%	80%	75%	70%	1	60%
N硅片产量占比	4%	6%	8%	10%		15%	20%	25%	30%	-	40%
P型硅片颗粒硅投料比	6%	6%	8%	10%	-	20%	25%	30%	35%	1	40%
N型硅片颗粒硅投料比	0%	0%	0%	0%	-	5%	7%	10%	15%		20%
颗粒硅需求（万吨）	0.78	1.02	1.63	3.43	6.85	2.83	4.56	6.55	13.09	27.04	35.25
供给-需求（万吨）	0.12	-0.12	-0.17	-0.85	-1.02	0.87	-0.49	-2.10	-7.89	-9.61	-7.65

资料来源：公司公告，HTI测算

协鑫科技、新特能源等硅料龙头年内签下了多笔多晶硅供应长单，协鑫科技近年来签订9份硅料长单，累计90.29万吨硅料产量被锁定，新特能源共有13份长单，累计172.32万吨硅料产量被锁定。

随着产量供应在未来几年势必大幅增加的预期之下，硅料企业对于多晶硅价格的议价能力或将产量随着供应的增加进入拐点，头部硅料企业通过锁定销量的方式来应对硅料价格的下跌，由于硅料成本远低于售价，因此，短期内头部硅料企业将继续维持高盈利水平。

图40:全球主要多晶硅生产商市场份额

资料来源：公司数据, HTI

图41:中国多晶硅扩产分布（2023）

资料来源：公司财报, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

2021年收入为225亿人民币，毛利润为93亿人民币，多晶硅板块是该公司利润表的最大贡献者。2021年，该板块的收入贡献率为51%，毛利润贡献率为73%。新特的目标是不断扩大产能，升级生产线，以提高成本效率和产品质量。

2022年H1公司公司营收147.16亿元，同比增长88.83%，净利润60.3亿元，同比大增345.1%。

图42:营收构成（百万元）

资料来源：公司财报, HTI

图43:多晶硅业务收入及毛利占比

资料来源：公司财报, HTI

2021年至今公司一共签约了6份长单，总规模为102.39万吨，按照签订时间的硅料价格，合约金额合计约2764.4亿元，长单时间跨度4年-8年，规模占行业比例为28.7%，排名第二，仅次于通威。

 短期内硅料供需改变，价格承压，但是对于头部企业而言，通过长单锁量，受到的影响较小，利润有保障。

表8: 21年至今长单情况

买方	规模（万吨）	金额（亿元）	期限
某能源公司	33.6	907.2	2023年-2030年
双良节能	20.19	545.13	2023年-2030年
双良节能	8.22	221.94	2022年-2026年
晶澳科技	18.10	488.70	2022年4月-2026年12月
广东高景	15.24	411.48	2021年7月-2025年12月
上机数控	7.04	189.95	2021年-2025年
合计	102.39	2764.4

资料来源：索比光伏网, HTI

图44:21年至今长单占比

资料来源：索比光伏网, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

协鑫科技2022上半年营业收入153.26亿元，同比+74.10%；毛利润为73.36亿元，同比+102.42%，归母净利润为69.09亿元，同比+187.06%。从收入结构看，多晶硅业务营收为68.83亿元，硅片业务营收为62.75亿元。受益于公司工艺改善带来成本下降，毛利率及净利率创下新高，分别为48%和43%，同比+28%和83%。

图45:公司净利润规模（单位：百万元）及增速

资料来源：公司财报, HTI

图46: 2016-2022Q3公司毛利率和净利率

资料来源：公司财报, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

2022Q3公司硅料产量2.61万吨（未含联营公司棒状硅产量1.62万吨），其中颗粒硅产量1.17万吨、棒状硅1.44万吨；另有硅片产量约11GW；公司颗粒硅持续放量，叠加新区域以及新装置的优势，颗粒硅生产成本持续降低，毛利再创新高。2022Q3公司颗粒硅毛利约205元/kg（含副产硅粉），棒状硅毛利约151元/kg。

风险提示：产能释放，供过于求，硅料价格下跌超预期；疫情影响，生产运输成本增加。

表9:协鑫科技硅料长单表

买方		规模（万吨）金额（亿元）	期限
中环股份	35	/	2022年1月1日-2026年12月31日
晶澳科技	14.58	/	2021年7月1日-2026年6月30日
上机数控	9.75	262.28	2022年1月1日-2026年12月31日
爱康科技	4.58	140.82	2022年9月1日-2027年12月31日
双良节能	5.28	112.09	2021年9月-2026年12月
隆基股份	9.14	73.28	2021年3月-2023年12月31日
上机数控	3.1	51.84	2021年6月-2023年12月
美科股份	7.19	/	2021年9月1日-2026年12月31日
上机数控	1.67	15.7	2020年-2021年
合计	90.29	655

资料来源：国际能源网，光伏头条, HTI

图47:公司多晶硅产能布局及规划

资料来源：公司数据, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

新型储能：

“十四五”风光装机高速增长的必要性配置

强制配储政策延续，盈利模式不断优化改善

长期来看，新型储能渗透率提升空间广阔

抽水蓄能：

作为重要的灵活性资源，全生命周期成本低

22-25年我国抽水蓄能新增装机CAGR有望达15.7%

光伏新增装机：根据CPIA数据，22年新增光伏装机保守75GW，乐观情况下90GW，22-25年新增装机CAGR分别为7.0%和7.3%。

风电新增装机：根据我们测算，22年海风预计新增装机6GW，陆风50GW，合计56GW，2025年风电装机合计有望达到90GW，22-25年海风与陆风CAGR分别为21.7%和7.9%。

图48：光伏新增装机预测

资料来源：GWEC, HTI 测算

图49：风电新增装机预测

资料来源：GWEC, HTI测算
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

根据CAISO数据，2012年-2020年美国加利福尼亚中午电网净负荷越来越大，风光装机增加带来发电设备出力与需求不匹配，“鸭型”曲线特征越发明显。

净负荷越大，对火电调节能力要求就越高，当净负荷在高比例新能源加入情况下越来越大的时候，如果当地燃煤机组技术出力下限较高，那么会出现调节不足的问题，增加弃风弃光率。

图50：加利福尼亚净负荷曲线

资料来源：CAISO,2020,The forecast was made in 2013, HTI

图51：浙江省2020年2月某日净负荷曲线

资料来源：浙江e家, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

储能应用场景：储能可以广泛应用于发-输-配-用环节，在平抑新能源输出功率波动、提升新能源消纳量、降低发电计划偏差和弃风弃光率、提升电网安全运行稳定性、缓解输电阻塞等方面发挥着重要的作用。

储能类型：大类分为短时高频储能和长时大容量储能，短时储能如锂离子电池凭借高响应速率广泛用于调频，长时大容量储能如液流储能凭借高储能容量一般用于调峰和黑启动。

表10：不同应用环境下储能电池系统的作用

作用储能电池安装位置发电输电配电用电
帮助发电厂黑启动
保障独立电网、微电网运行		√	√
保证重要客户供电			√
延缓发电机装机			√
节省输电介入和拥塞费用			√
延缓输配电升级改造		√	√
电力批发市场套利	√	√	√
降低线损		√	√
输配电支撑、减少拥塞			√
分时电价用户电费节省				√
促进可再生能源接入
负荷跟踪			√
调频、提供旋转备用			√
避免闪动影响用电设备 √

资料来源：HTI整理

图52：各种储能技术应用场合

资料来源：高工储能, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

截至目前，我国有24个省市推出了配储政策，配储比例普遍在10%-30%，配储时长1-4小时，强制配储政策并没有明显放松，将为新型储能的高装机增速“托底”。

根据中关村储能产业技术联盟数据，22年前三季度，我国新型储能累计装机6.7GW，同比增加78%，新增933.8MW/1991MWh，同比增加113%，新增规划和在建新型储能项目73.3GW/177.0GWh，23年新型储能装机有望继续大幅增长。

表11：24省市配储政策整理

省级行政区	配储比例和配储时间要求省级行政区配储比例和配储时间要求省级行政区				配储比例和配储时间要求
青海	10%，2h	山东	10%，2h	海南	10%，
新疆	-，2h	江西	10%，1h	福建	10%，-
甘肃	5%，1h	天津	光伏配储10%，风电配储15%	湖北	10%，2h
	1类：10%，2h;Ⅱ类：15%，2h;三类：20%，2h;	陕西	风电：陕北地区配储10%，2h；光伏：关中和延安地区配储10%，2h；榆林市配储20%，2h；	宁夏	10%，2h
河南	1类：10%，2h;Ⅱ类：15%，2h;三类：20%，2h;	陕西	风电：陕北地区配储10%，2h；光伏：关中和延安地区配储10%，2h；榆林市配储20%，2h；	宁夏	10%，2h
辽宁	10%，-;优先鼓励15%，3h	安徽	5%，2h	内蒙古	15%，4h
山西	风电：10%，-;光伏：10%-15%，-	河北	南网：10%，3h北网：15%，3h	江苏	8%，-
广西	15%，2h	湖南	10%，2h	浙江	10%， 2h
上海 20%，4h 广东 10%，- 贵州 10%，2h

资料来源：HTI整理

理由1：根据中电联数据，中国当前电化学储能电站的利用率较低，电化学储能项目平均等效利用系数为12.2%，新能源配储系数仅为6.1%，火电厂配储能为15.3%，电网储能为14.8%，用户储能为28.3%，总体利用率较低。

理由2：2022年7月份新版国家标准《电力储能用锂离子电池》征求意见稿发布，相较于2018年版本，新版规范对于储能相较于2018年版本，新版规范对于储能电池安全标准更加严格，安全标准的趋严有望降低电池故障率，减少非计划停运，提升电站利用率。

理由3：11月25日国家能源局发布《电力现货市场基本规则（征求意见稿）》《电力现货市场监督办法（征求意见稿）》，提出推动储能参与现货交易，各省也在推动容量补偿和容量租赁政策，独立储能的盈利渠道不断扩大，商业模式越发清晰。23年各省独立储能经济性将不断改善，利用率有望回升。

图53：储能利用率

资料来源：中电联，HTI

表12：各省储能租赁和容量补偿标准

省份	山东	河南	湖南	广西	内蒙古	青海	新疆
租赁费用（元/千瓦时）	330	260		160-230
容量补偿（元/千瓦时）	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.396	0.35	0.5	0.55

资料来源：各省官方文件，HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

 工作原理：在用电负荷低谷时将将水抽至高海拔水库，在用电高峰时发电满足负荷需求，进行削峰填谷。

调节性能优异：灵活性分为向上和向下灵活性，向上调节即为削峰，向下调节即为填谷，抽水蓄能运行范围区间为-100%\~100%，调节方向多样，启停时间短，调节时间尺度广，涵盖短时、中时和长时。

图54：抽水蓄能原理

资料来源：BNEF，高传昌等《抽水蓄能电站技术》（2011）, HTI

表13：储能灵活性性能特点

资源类型	资源特性			灵活性提升特点
	资源特性				调节方向			调节时间尺度
	爬坡速运行范启停间率围时(Pn/（%） (h)mi）			尚甘供下需供/需供/需向上向下/短时中时长时下速率上速率
抽水蓄能	-100~100	10-50%	<0.1	√	√	√	√	★☆★	☆☆★	★
电化学储能	-100~100	100%	<0.1	√	√	√	V	★☆★	☆☆	-
绿氢		=	-		√		√	-	☆☆	☆☆★

资料来源：《电力系统灵活性提升：技术路径、经济性及政策建议》, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

 根据《储能技术全生命周期度电成本分析》，在考虑充电电价0.288元每度的情况下，抽水蓄能的度电成本为0.882元每千瓦时，较磷酸铁锂电池低30%，按照国家发改委的发文，在电力现货市场尚未运行的地方，抽水电价按照当地煤电基准电价的75%执行。

 充电电价越低，抽水蓄能的度电成本较磷酸铁锂电池的度电成本越低。

表14：不同储能技术全生命周期度电成本对比

压缩空气储磷酸铁锂电项目抽水蓄能能池储能
考虑充电电价（0.288元/(kW·h)）（元/kW·h）	0.882	0.911	1.255
不考虑充电电价（利用弃风弃光充电）（元/kW·h）	0.503	0.431	0.928
不考虑充电电价且折现率为0（元/kW·h）	0.207	0.190	0.680

资料来源：文军，刘楠等《储能技术全生命周期度电成本分析》, HTI

图55：度电成本敏感性分析

资料来源：文军，刘楠等《储能技术全生命周期度电成本分析》, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

根据CNESA数据，2021年抽水蓄能装机占比为86.3%，为储能技术中装机占比最大的类别。

2021年5月7日，国家发展改革委发布《关于进一步完善抽水蓄能价格形成机制的意见》，抽水蓄能电站收益来源于两部分，容量电价和电量电价，改意见将从2023年1月1日开始执行，意见明确了投资收益率，引导社会资本参与抽水蓄能建设，同时健全容量电价疏导机制，将成本传导给用户，理顺抽蓄盈利模式，推动抽蓄高速发展。

图56：2021年各类储能技术占比

资料来源：CNESA, HTI

图57：抽水蓄能电价机制

资料来源：HTI绘制
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

截至2021年底，我国已纳入规划的抽水蓄能站点资源总量约8.14亿千瓦时，其中重点实施项目4.21亿千瓦，规划储备项目3.05亿千瓦，9792万千瓦已经实施。

 截至2021年底我国抽蓄规模为3639万千瓦，居世界第一，各省市在建规模为6153瓦万千瓦。

图58：各省市抽水蓄能资源分布

资料来源：水利水电总院, HTI

图59：各省市抽水蓄能在建规模

资料来源：水利水电总院, HTI
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

2021年9月14日，《南方电网公司关于推动绿色低碳发展转型的意见》提出，从“十四五”到“十六五”期间，南方电网将持续加大投资力度，加快建设抽水蓄能和新型储能，计划“十四五”、“十五五”和“十六五”期间，分别投产600万、1500万、1500万千瓦抽水蓄能。

根据国家能源局发布的《抽水蓄能中长期发展规划（2021-2025）》，到2025年中国抽水蓄能累计投产要超过62GW，到2030年累计投产120GW，我们保守预计25年累计装机65GW，22-25年CAGR为15.6%，重点关注。

图60：2022-2025年抽水蓄能累计装机测算

资料来源：iFind, HTI测算
For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

风电整机商方面，受益于海上风机大型化推动海风投资成本快速下降和平价进程的加快推进，进而在招标层面放量，重点关注风机制造商龙头：金风科技等。

硅料方面，硅料新进者涌入，供不应求导致价格下行，重点关注硅料长单占比较大的棒状硅头部企业：新特能源；通过专注研究技术降本增效的颗粒硅龙头：协鑫科技等。

电力板块，“双碳”目标叠加能源供应链、产业链的重构，为可再生能源发电带来新机遇，重点关注可再生能源发展迅速的公司：华润电力、龙源电力等。

表15可比公司估值

		收盘价	市值（亿HKD)	EPS （元/股）			PE （倍）
公司	(HKD)	收盘价	市值（亿HKD)	EPS （元/股）			PE （倍）
代码 2208.HK		2022/12/20 7.10	477.24	2021 2022E 0.82	2023E	2021 20.13	2022E 2023E 13.06
	金凤科技			0.84	0.99		11.08
0836.HK 0916.HK	华润电力	13.58	653.26 1275.50	1.89 - 0.77	2.43	78.83	7.35 5.73
3800.HK	龙源电力协鑫科技	8.46		0.86	1.09 0.49	19.42 8.90	7.04
		2.00	542.17 212.8	0.21 0.52 3.92	8.08	12.33	3.54 3.79 1.73
1799.HK	新特能源	15.46		8.18		3.41	1.71

表中EPS和PE来自WIND一致性估计
资料来源：wind, HTI

In 2023, we believe that the core focus will be on three major directions:

（1）Wind and solar operators and wind power machine manufacturers

 Viewpoint 1: Policy benefit continue to increase, and the logic of high-speed growth in wind and solar installations remains unchanged. The CAGR of new installed capacity in 2022-25 is 7% and 17.1%, respectively.

 Viewpoint 2: wind turbine winning price downward trend remains unchanged, part of provinces with good offshore wind have IRR more than 13%, centralized PV EPC price down to 3.48 yuan/w, PV project IRR significantly improved, it is suggested to focus on leading wind power operators Longyuan Power; China Resources Power has rising share of new energy installation.

 Viewpoint 3: The planned installed capacity of offshore wind in the "14th Five-Year Plan" will exceed 80GW, and offshore wind will be the track with the highest certainty in the wind and solar power segment.

 Viewpoint 4: We are optimistic about the overseas deployment of Chinese wind power complete machine manufacturers, and their global penetration rate is constantly increasing. It is suggested to pay attention to Goldwind Technology, the leader of wind power complete machines.

（2）Polysilicon

 Viewpoint 1: The supply and demand of rod-shaped silicon has changed from a tight balance to a loose one. Head manufacturers have secured profits through long-term lock-ups. It is suggested to pay attention to Xinte Energy.

 Viewpoint 2: Granular silicon is expected to have a structural shortage of 96,000 tons in 23 years. It is suggested to pay attention to GCL Technology.

（3）Large power storage and pumped storage

 Viewpoint 1: The increasing proportion of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity has spurred the demand for allocation and storage.

 Viewpoint 2: 24 provinces have launched mandatory storage allocation policies, the opening of the auxiliary service market and the spot market has improved the profitability of energy storage, and the penetration rate of new energy storage will continue to increase.

 Viewpoint 3: It is conservatively estimated that the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage in 25 years is expected to reach 65GW, and the CAGR in 22-25 years is 15.7%.

Risks： 1. The policy is weaker than expected; 2. Raw materials increase leads to higher costs and lower profits; 3. The demand is weaker than expected; 4. Price competition leads to lower profits.

For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com

重要信息披露

本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), Haitong Securities India Private Limited (“HSIPL”), Haitong International Japan K.K. (“HTIJKK”), Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”), and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies (“HTISG”), each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.

HTIRL分析师认证Analyst Certification:

我，杨斌，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I, Bin Yang, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.

利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures

海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com）

HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship (As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness, please send an email to ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com if timely and comprehensive information is needed).

海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“海通”）在过去12个月内参与了2208.HK, 3800.HK and 2727.HK的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。

Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. and/or its subsidiaries (collectively, the "Haitong") have a role in investment banking projects of 2208.HK, 3800.HK and 2727.HK within the past 12 months. The investment banking projects include 1. IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor, sponsor, or lead-underwriter; 2. equity or debt refinancing projects of 2208.HK, 3800.HK and 2727.HK for which Haitong acted as sponsor, lead-underwriter or financial advisor; 3. listing by introduction in the new three board, target placement, M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm.

2208.HK, 3800.HK 及 2727.HK目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。

2208.HK, 3800.HK and 2727.HK are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.

2208.HK, 3800.HK, 大庆绿能科技有限公司及 2727.HK目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。

2208.HK, 3800.HK, 大庆绿能科技有限公司 and 2727.HK are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months. The client has been provided for noninvestment-banking securities-related services.

海通在过去12个月中获得对2208.HK提供投资银行服务的报酬。

Haitong received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services provided to 2208.HK.

海通预计将（或者有意向）在未来三个月内从3800.HK 及 601615.CH获得投资银行服务报酬。

Haitong expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from 3800.HK and 601615.CH.

海通在过去的12个月中从2208.HK, 3800.HK 及 2727.HK获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。

Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 2208.HK, 3800.HK and 2727.HK.

海通担任2208.HK 及 0916.HK有关证券的做市商或流通量提供者。

Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of 2208.HK and 0916.HK.

评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：

海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。

分析师股票评级

优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下

中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。

弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下

各地股票基准指数：日本 – TOPIX, 韩国 – KOSPI, 台湾 – TAIEX, 印度 – Nifty100, 美国 – SP500; 其他所有中国概念股 – MSCI China.

Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020):

Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations.

Analyst Stock Ratings

Outperform: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

Neutral: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.

Underperform: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

Benchmarks for each stock’s listed region are as follows: Japan – TOPIX, Korea – KOSPI, Taiwan – TAIEX, India – Nifty100, US – SP500; for all other China-concept stocks – MSCI China.

评级分布Rating Distribution

Most Recent Full Quarter

Prior Full Quarter

截至2022年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布

	优于大市	中性 (持有)	弱于大市
海通国际股票研究覆盖率	89.4%	9.2%	1.4%
投资银行客户*	5.5%	6.8%	4.5%

*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。
上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。
只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。

此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）：

买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下

中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。

卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下

各地股票基准指数：日本 – TOPIX, 韩国 – KOSPI, 台湾 – TAIEX, 印度 – Nifty100; 其他所有中国概念股 – MSCI China.

Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of Sep 30, 2022

	Outperform	Neutral (hold)	Underperform
HTI Equity Research Coverage	89.4%	9.2%	1.4%
IB clients*	5.5%	6.8%	4.5%

*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.
BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform.
For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.

Previous rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020):

BUY: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

NEUTRAL: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.

SELL: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

Benchmarks for each stock’s listed region are as follows: Japan – TOPIX, Korea – KOSPI, Taiwan – TAIEX, India – Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks – MSCI China.

Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares: Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen. Haitong Securities (HS; 600837 CH), the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai, covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China. However, the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.

海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。
这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。

Haitong International Non-Rated Research: Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.

海通国际A股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券（600837.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。

海通国际优质100 A股（Q100）指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。

Haitong International Quality 100 A-share (Q100) Index: HTI’s Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai. These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share team’s bottom-up research. The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.

MSCI ESG评级免责声明条款：尽管海通国际的信息供货商（包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research LLC及其联属公司（「ESG方」）从其认为可靠的来源获取信息（「信息」）, ESG方均不担保或保证此处任何数据的原创性，准确性和/或完整性，并明确表示不作出任何明示或默示的担保，包括可商售性和针对特定目的的适用性。该信息只能供阁下内部使用，不得以任何形式复制或重新传播，并不得用作任何金融工具、产品或指数的基础或组成部分。此外，信息本质上不能用于判断购买或出售何种证券, 或何时购买或出售该证券。即使已被告知可能造成的损害, ESG方均不承担与此处任何资料有关的任何错误或遗漏所引起的任何责任，也不对任何直接、间接、特殊、惩罚性、附带性或任何其他损害赔偿（包括利润损失）承担任何责任。

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非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International (Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK”）的协助下发行，HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。

印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities IndiaPrivate Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为「印度交易所」）的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。

所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。

本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。

除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。

请访问海通国际网站 www.equities.htisec.com ，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。

非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

For research reports on non-Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group Limited (“HTISGL”) and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities) for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) of Hong Kong, with the assistance of Haitong International (Japan) K.K. (“HTIJKK”), a wholly owned subsidiary of HTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.

For research reports on Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited (“HSIPL”), an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) registered Stock Broker, Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that, inter alia, produces and distributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited (“BSE”) and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (“NSE”) (collectively referred to as “Indian Exchanges”). HSIPL was acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies (“HTISG”) on 22 December 2016.

All the research reports are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”) and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.

The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by HTIRL, HTISCL, HSIPL, HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report may be received, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to change without notice. This research report is for information purpose only. Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this research report is not, and should not be construed expressly or impliedly as, an offer to buy or sell securities. The securities referred to in this research report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions. If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investor's home currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Certain transactions, including those involving derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. You should also bear in mind that recommendations in this research report are not tailor-made for you. The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances, such as your financial situation and risk appetite. You must, therefore, analyze and should, where applicable, consult your own legal, tax, accounting, financial and other professional advisers to evaluate whether the recommendations suits you before investment. Neither HTISG nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.

HTISG and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research report. Sales, traders, and other professionals of HTISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. HTISG may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research report. HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading decisions, ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this research report.

Please refer to HTI’s website www.equities.htisec.com for further information on HTI’s organizational and administrative arrangements set up for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.

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分发和地区通知：

除非下文另有规定，否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。

香港投资者的通知事项：海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告，HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动（从事证券交易）的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成《证券及期货条例》（香港法例第571章）（以下简称“SFO”）所界定的要约邀请，证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。

美国投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由HTIRL，HSIPL或HTIJKK编写。 HTIRL，HSIPL，HTIJKK以及任何非HTISG美国联营公司，均未在美国注册，因此不受美国关于研究报告编制和研究分析人员独立性规定的约束。本研究报告提供给依照1934年“美国证券交易法”第15a-6条规定的豁免注册的「美国主要机构投资者」（“Major U.S. Institutional Investor”）和「机构投资者」（”U.S. Institutional Investors”）。在向美国机构投资者分发研究报告时，HaitongInternational Securities (USA) Inc. （“HTI USA”）将对报告的内容负责。任何收到本研究报告的美国投资者，希望根据本研究报告提供的信息进行任何证券或相关金融工具买卖的交易，只能通过HTI USA。HTI USA位于340 Madison Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY 10173，电话（212）351-6050。 HTI USA是在美国于U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission（“SEC”）注册的经纪商，也是Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc.（“FINRA”）的成员。 HTIUSA不负责编写本研究报告，也不负责其中包含的分析。在任何情况下，收到本研究报告的任何美国投资者，不得直接与分析师直接联系，也不得通过HSIPL，HTIRL或HTIJKK直接进行买卖证券或相关金融工具的交易。本研究报告中出现的HSIPL，HTIRL或HTIJKK分析师没有注册或具备FINRA的研究分析师资格，因此可能不受FINRA第2241条规定的与目标公司的交流，公开露面和分析师账户持有的交易证券等限制。投资本研究报告中讨论的任何非美国证券或相关金融工具（包括ADR）可能存在一定风险。非美国发行的证券可能没有注册，或不受美国法规的约束。有关非美国证券或相关金融工具的信息可能有限制。外国公司可能不受审计和汇报的标准以及与美国境内生效相符的监管要求。本研究报告中以美元以外的其他货币计价的任何证券或相关金融工具的投资或收益的价值受汇率波动的影响，可能对该等证券或相关金融工具的价值或收入产生正面或负面影响。美国收件人的所有问询请联系：

Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc. 340 Madison Avenue, 12th Floor New York, NY 10173 联系人电话：(212) 351 6050

DISTRIBUTION AND REGIONAL NOTICES

Except as otherwise indicated below, any Recipient wishing to discuss this research report or effect any transaction in any security discussed in HTI’s research should contact the Haitong International salesperson in their own country or region.

Notice to Hong Kong investors: The research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”), which is a licensed corporation to carry on Type 1 regulated activity (dealing in securities) in Hong Kong. This research report does not constitute a solicitation or an offer of securities or an invitation to the public within the meaning of the SFO. This research report is only to be circulated to "Professional Investors" as defined in the SFO. This research report has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission. You should not make investment decisions solely on the basis of the information contained in this research report. Recipients of this research report are to contact HTISCL salespersons in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the research report.

Notice to U.S. investors: As described above, this research report was prepared by HTIRL, HSIPL or HTIJKK. Neither HTIRL, HSIPL, HTIJKK, nor any of the non U.S. HTISG affiliates is registered in the United States and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report is provided for distribution to “major U.S. institutional investors” and “U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. When distributing research reports to “U.S. institutional investors,” HTI USA will accept the responsibilities for the content of the reports. Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments based on the information provided in this research report should do so only through Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc. (“HTI USA”), located at 340 Madison Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY 10173, USA; telephone (212) 351 6050. HTI USA is a brokerdealer registered in the U.S. with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”). HTI USA is not responsible for the preparation of this research report nor for the analysis contained therein. Under no circumstances should any U.S. recipient of this research report contact the analyst directly or effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments directly through HSIPL, HTIRL or HTIJKK. The HSIPL, HTIRL or HTIJKK analyst(s) whose name appears in this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and, therefore, may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments (including ADRs) discussed in this research report may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to U.S. regulations. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Foreign companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect within the U.S. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related financial instruments discussed in this research report denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related financial instruments. All inquiries by U.S. recipients should be directed to:

Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc.

340 Madison Avenue, 12th Floor

New York, NY 10173

Attn: Sales Desk at (212) 351 6050

中华人民共和国的通知事项：在中华人民共和国（下称“中国”，就本报告目的而言，不包括香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾）只有根据适用的中国法律法规而收到该材料的人员方可使用该材料。并且根据相关法律法规，该材料中的信息并不构成“在中国从事生产、经营活动”。本文件在中国并不构成相关证券的公共发售或认购。无论根据法律规定或其他任何规定，在取得中国政府所有的批准或许可之前，任何法人或自然人均不得直接或间接地购买本材料中的任何证券或任何实益权益。接收本文件的人员须遵守上述限制性规定。

加拿大投资者的通知事项：在任何情况下该等材料均不得被解释为在任何加拿大的司法管辖区内出售证券的要约或认购证券的要约邀请。本材料中所述证券在加拿大的任何要约或出售行为均只能在豁免向有关加拿大证券监管机构提交招股说明书的前提下由Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc. （“HTIUSA”）予以实施，该公司是一家根据National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations（“NI 31-103”）的规定得到「国际交易商豁免」（“International Dealer Exemption” ）的交易商，位于艾伯塔省、不列颠哥伦比亚省、安大略省和魁北克省。在加拿大，该等材料在任何情况下均不得被解释为任何证券的招股说明书、发行备忘录、广告或公开发行。加拿大的任何证券委员会或类似的监管机构均未审查或以任何方式批准该等材料、其中所载的信息或所述证券的优点，任何与此相反的声明即属违法。在收到该等材料时，每个加拿大的收件人均将被视为属于National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions第1.1节或者Securities Act (Ontario)第73.3(1)节所规定的「认可投资者」（“Accredited Investor”），或者在适用情况下National Instrument 31-103第1.1节所规定的「许可投资者」（“Permitted Investor”）。

新加坡投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd（“HTISSPL”）[公司注册编号201311400G] 于新加坡提供。HTISSPL是符合《财务顾问法》（第110章）（“FAA”）定义的豁免财务顾问，可（a）提供关于证券，集体投资计划的部分，交易所衍生品合约和场外衍生品合约的建议（b）发行或公布有关证券、交易所衍生品合约和场外衍生品合约的研究分析或研究报告。本研究报告仅提供给符合《证券及期货法》（第289章）第4A条项下规定的机构投资者。对于因本研究报告而产生的或与之相关的任何问题，本研究报告的收件人应通过以下信息与HTISSPL联系:

Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd

50 Raffles Place, #33-03 Singapore Land Tower, Singapore 048623

电话: (65) 6536 1920

日本投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由海通国际证券有限公司所发布，旨在分发给从事投资管理的金融服务提供商或注册金融机构（根据日本金融机构和交易法（“ FIEL”））第61（1）条，第17-11（1）条的执行及相关条款）。

英国及欧盟投资者的通知事项：本报告由从事投资顾问的Haitong International Securities Company Limited所发布，本报告只面向有投资相关经验的专业客户发布。任何投资或与本报告相关的投资行为只面对此类专业客户。没有投资经验或相关投资经验的客户不得依赖本报告。Haitong International SecuritiesCompany Limited的分支机构的净长期或短期金融权益可能超过本研究报告中提及的实体已发行股本总额的0.5％。特别提醒有些英文报告有可能此前已经通过中文或其它语言完成发布。

澳大利亚投资者的通知事项：Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, Haitong International Securities Company Limited和Haitong InternationalSecurities (UK) Limited分别根据澳大利亚证券和投资委员会（以下简称“ASIC”）第03/1102、03/1103或03/1099号规章在澳大利亚分发本项研究，该等规章免除了根据2001年《公司法》在澳大利亚为批发客户提供金融服务时海通国际需持有澳大利亚金融服务许可的要求。ASIC的规章副本可在以下网站获取：www.legislation.gov.au。海通国际提供的金融服务受外国法律法规规定的管制，该等法律与在澳大利亚所适用的法律存在差异。

印度投资者的通知事项：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities IndiaPrivate Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发布，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）（统称为「印度交易所」）研究报告。

本项研究仅供收件人使用，未经海通国际的书面同意不得予以复制和再次分发。

People’s Republic of China (PRC): In the PRC, the research report is directed for the sole use of those who receive the research report in accordance with the applicable PRC laws and regulations. Further, the information on the research report does not constitute "production and business activities in the PRC" under relevant PRC laws. This research report does not constitute a public offer of the security, whether by sale or subscription, in the PRC. Further, no legal or natural persons of the PRC may directly or indirectly purchase any of the security or any beneficial interest therein without obtaining all prior PRC government approvals or licenses that are required, whether statutorily or otherwise. Persons who come into possession of this research are required to observe these restrictions.

Notice to Canadian Investors: Under no circumstances is this research report to be construed as an offer to sell securities or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc., a dealer relying on the “international dealer exemption” under National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations (“NI 31-103”) in Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. This research report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a prospectus, an offering memorandum, an advertisement or a public offering of any securities in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon this research report, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Upon receipt of this research report, each Canadian recipient will be deemed to have represented that the investor is an “accredited investor” as such term is defined in section 1.1 of National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions or, in Ontario, in section 73.3(1) of the Securities Act (Ontario), as applicable, and a “permitted client” as such term is defined in section 1.1 of NI 31-103, respectively.

Notice to Singapore investors: This research report is provided in Singapore by or through Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“HTISSPL”) [Co Reg No 201311400G. HTISSPL is an Exempt Financial Adviser under the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) (“FAA”) to (a) advise on securities, units in a collective investment scheme, exchange-traded derivatives contracts and over-the-counter derivatives contracts and (b) issue or promulgate research analyses or research reports on securities, exchange-traded derivatives contracts and over-the-counter derivatives contracts. This research report is only provided to institutional investors, within the meaning of Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289). Recipients of this research report are to contact HTISSPL via the details below in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the research report:

Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.

10 Collyer Quay, #19-01 - #19-05 Ocean Financial Centre, Singapore 049315

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