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欧元区年度策略：增长或将面临更大挑战-20231107-华泰证券

概览：欧央行和市场均预计欧元区能够实现软着陆，但低估了欧元区经济的下行风险。我们预计，欧元区将在2024年上半年进入浅衰退，通胀回落速度超过欧央行预期，欧央行或在 2024年7月开启降息周期，累计降息100bp。欧元区整体偏弱的情况下，欧股或承压，德债10 年期收益率将回落，意德利差面临放宽压力，而欧元相对美元或整体偏弱。 GDP增长路径：2024年上半年浅衰退，增长下行风险超过市场预期预计20

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