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首创证券-有色金属行业2024年策略报告：供给约束+消费引擎切换，看好金铜铝板块-240105

⚫ 2023年行情回顾：有色金属走势分化，整体跑输大盘。其中，贵金属价格走高，铜铝高位震荡，镍钴锂等能源金属价格显著回落。贵金属基金持仓占比上升，能源金属基金持仓占比下降。行业利润整体回落，杠杆率继续下降。贵金属：美国通胀加速回落，就业市场放缓，加息对经济影响存在滞后性，2024年美联储有望启动降息。降息周期，美债收益率下行速度将快于通胀预期回落速度，美国国债实际收益率筑顶回落，金价往往涨多跌少

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