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建筑材料行业2024年周期建材年度策略报告：需求下行周期，产能过剩下的出清是主旋律-20231106-财通证券

水泥：国企主导，行业自律重构是利润恢复关键。通过我们测算，未来5-10年地产的中枢销售对应的水泥需求预计在16-17亿吨，相比于现有行业年均21-23亿吨的产量来看，水泥行业仍存在产能过剩问题。具体分析看，水泥行业国企是主导力量,前10大水泥企业中国央企市占比合计就已达到42.74%，有较强的定价能力；参考同为国企占主导的钢铁行业，水泥行业未来的出清将更多以行业自律为主，即协同生产降低产能利用率同

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